Digital Survey Reveals Cuban Perspectives on U.S. Embargo and External Pressure Policies

A recent survey aimed at capturing political and social perspectives in Cuba, initiated by over 20 independent digital media outlets, highlights that a significant portion of respondents favor maintaining or even strengthening external pressure tactics on the Cuban regime, including the U.S. embargo.

Launched by platforms such as El Toque and Rialta, the survey remains open until May 1 and has already gathered over 12,100 responses within its first 48 hours. This data, broken down by province, age, education level, and political opinion, provides a snapshot that should be viewed as a partial reflection of current sentiments.

Preliminary findings indicate that 46.6% of participants support the embargo as a pressure tool to drive democratic change on the island. Meanwhile, 24.4% suggest it should be gradually lifted as Cuba progresses with political and economic reforms.

Support for a total repeal of the embargo is limited. Only 12.4% advocate for an unconditional lifting, whereas 10.6% think the measure should be intensified in strategic sectors such as energy. Another 6.0% remain undecided on the matter.

Preferred Forms of External Pressure

Regarding acceptable forms of external pressure, direct U.S. military intervention is favored by 60.4% of respondents. Following this, 54.7% endorse targeted sanctions against government officials, and 50.7% support increased multilateral diplomatic pressure from international bodies like the UN, OAS, or the European Union.

Other measures garner lesser backing. International funding for civil society groups within Cuba is supported by 20.3%, while 14.7% back an escalation of the energy blockade.

Additionally, 12.1% prefer negotiated agreements that ensure a partial continuity of the regime. Merely 5.2% believe that Cuba's issues should be resolved internally without external pressure.

Context of the Survey

This survey emerges amid Cuba's most severe economic and social crisis since 1959, with a 23% GDP drop since 2019, power outages lasting up to 20 hours a day in some areas, and 89% of the population living in extreme poverty, according to the Food Monitor Program.

In this backdrop, the debate over the U.S. embargo's role is central. Miguel Díaz-Canel's government consistently blames Washington's "economic war" for the crisis, whereas independent economists argue that the primary causes lie in the political system's rigidity, state-controlled economy, and lack of structural reforms.

Survey Findings on Government and System Preferences

Overall, the survey results reveal a strong disapproval of the current system. A substantial 75.1% of participants express a preference for a capitalist model with liberal democracy and a market economy, while over 91% support some form of profound structural change in Cuba.

Dissatisfaction with the government is also pronounced. A staggering 92% of respondents report being very dissatisfied with the current system, and Díaz-Canel receives an average rating of 1.11 out of five, with 93.7% assigning him the lowest score possible.

In an open-ended question regarding public figures with positive performance, 63.4% of respondents replied with comments like "none," "nobody is good," or "all are corrupt," underscoring the deep-seated distrust in the country's political leadership.

International Perspectives and Reactions

A survey by El Nuevo Herald that angered official Cuban media showed that 73% of Cubans and Cuban Americans in South Florida blame the Cuban government, not the embargo, for the crisis, with 79% supporting some form of U.S. military intervention.

The government newspaper Granma dismissed these results as "lies," accusing exile media of promoting "hatred, violence, and terrorism."

Additionally, a YouGov survey in March revealed that 40% of Americans disapprove of the embargo, compared to 32% who support it, a statistic that Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez shared on social media.

In May 2024, only 3% of Cubans identified as strongly socialist, with 85.9% desiring a transition to a more open model, a trend that the collective survey's partial results appear to confirm and deepen.