A digital survey focusing on Cuba's political and social future, launched on Thursday by a coalition of over 20 independent digital platforms, is capturing real-time opinions on what Cubans wish to preserve and eliminate in the face of a potential political transition on the island.
Led by platforms such as El Toque and Rialta, the initiative features 32 questions divided into seven sections and will remain active until May 1.
As of the first 48 hours, the survey, which has garnered 4,324 responses, updates its anonymous data on an interactive panel. The responses are categorized by province, age, education level, and political opinion.
One of the key questions, "What should be preserved and what should disappear from the current system?" is particularly significant in a nation where the regime has historically justified the socialist model through achievements in healthcare and education.
Preliminary data points to a clear trend: 75.1% of participants believe Cuba should shift towards a capitalist model with liberal democracy and a market economy.
Meanwhile, 16.5% of respondents favor a mixed system blending socialist and capitalist elements, whereas a mere 1.9% support reforming the current model, and an almost negligible 0.1% wish to keep it unchanged.
Combining those who support a market democracy with advocates of a mixed system, over 91% endorse some form of deep structural change.
Dissatisfaction with the current system is nearly unanimous, with 92% of participants expressing extreme dissatisfaction—rating it a one on a scale from one to five—and 96% conveying dissatisfaction to some degree. Only 2% show any level of contentment.
"The populace not only desires a different model but is also profoundly discontent with the current system. This outlines a very clear scenario: high social pressure for thorough structural change, not minor reforms," notes the partial results analysis.
Among evaluated government figures, ruling leader Miguel Díaz-Canel faces overwhelming disapproval, averaging 1.11 out of five, with 93.7% of respondents assigning him the lowest score.
The government as a whole receives an average score of 1.09, with 94% marking the lowest possible confidence level.
Open-ended responses are equally telling. One participant remarked, "Anyone linked to the upper echelons of this government offers no trust for the future," while another noted, "None have favorable performance, they are all puppets."
The survey emerges amid the worst economic downturn Cuba has faced since 1959. The GDP has plummeted 23% since 2019, with a forecast of -7.2% for 2026. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Cuba and Haiti were the only Latin American countries with GDP declines in 2025.
Additionally, power outages can last up to 20 hours daily, and the informal dollar exchange rate has soared to 400 Cuban pesos.
These findings align with previously documented trends. In May 2024, only 3% of Cubans identified as staunchly socialist, while 85.9% sought a shift towards a more open model, according to CubaData.
Since the survey remains open until May 1, any conclusions must be seen as a snapshot in time, subject to change as new responses are collected.
Cuban Political Transition: Key Insights and Public Opinion
What is the main goal of the Cuban survey on political transition?
The primary aim of the survey is to gather real-time opinions from Cubans regarding what aspects of their current system they want to keep or change in anticipation of a potential political transition.
Who is leading the survey on Cuba's future?
The survey is spearheaded by a coalition of over 20 independent digital platforms, including El Toque and Rialta.
How do Cubans feel about the current system according to the survey?
The survey indicates a widespread dissatisfaction with the current system, with 92% of participants expressing extreme dissatisfaction and only 2% showing any level of contentment.
What economic challenges is Cuba currently facing?
Cuba is experiencing its worst economic crisis since 1959, with a 23% decline in GDP since 2019, ongoing power outages, and the informal dollar exchange rate reaching 400 Cuban pesos.