During a visit to Havana on April 10, the U.S. Department of State held initial and exclusive discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Raúl Castro's grandson known as "El Cangrejo," before engaging with Cuba's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
This situation highlights that the true negotiator for Washington isn't Miguel Díaz-Canel, but rather the network surrounding GAESA, the military conglomerate that exerts control over 40% to 70% of the Cuban economy.
The order of these meetings—first addressing the actual power, then the formal authority—illustrates the dynamic of U.S.-Cuba negotiations in 2026.
"Negotiations must involve them. I assume that's how it is. Hence, he emerges as the person, right? He's the Castro family member with a direct connection to that conglomerate," explained one analyst who reviewed the progress of these discussions.
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, aged 41, holds the rank of lieutenant colonel in the MININT and served as his grandfather's chief of personal security since 2016.
Though he lacks a formal public title, his direct ties to GAESA position him as the Castro family member with the most substantial influence in these talks.
The conglomerate he represents generates revenues 3.2 times greater than Cuba's state budget and dominates 95% of the island's foreign currency transactions.
Its structure was reinforced by General Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja, former husband of Déborah Castro, Raúl's daughter, who passed away in July 2022.
"What if López Calleja were still alive? He would have been the one handling these negotiations, right? It's about interests. Economic interests," noted the same source.
Díaz-Canel, according to analysts, plays a secondary role in the process: he is expected to execute decisions rather than make them.
Roberto Veiga, a jurist and director of Cuba Próxima, succinctly summarized: Díaz-Canel is "minimally empowered in the process." His involvement is present but doesn't equate to leadership.
Washington is betting on this circle because it recognizes that Cuba's stability isn't built solely on political rhetoric.
"Relying on ideology alone won't suffice. They need tangible financial resources and concrete economic and social management capabilities," warned one consulted analyst.
The only regime figures who have physically left Cuba amid these negotiations are the official known as Pérez Bolívar Fraga and "El Cangrejo" himself, who reportedly met in the Caribbean with Secretary of State Marco Rubio's team.
The contrast with Venezuela is striking. Delcy Rodríguez, the Venezuelan vice president, met with CIA agents in Doha, as reported by the newspaper ABC, but did so far from home. In Cuba, however, meetings can occur directly on the island. The reason is structural: "In Cuba, there's only one [powerful family]. Everyone else revolves around the benefits it provides."
This relationship between the Castro entourage and Washington isn't new. "The interaction between Delsi Rodríguez and her brother with the United States had already been intense, even during the previous administration. Very intense. The levels of conversation, dialogue, interaction, and certain trusts were already there. They didn't start with this administration," clarified the analysis source.
The April 10 visit marked the first official flight of a U.S. government aircraft to Cuba since 2016.
Alejandro García del Toro, deputy director general of MINREX for the U.S., described the meeting as "serious, respectful, and professional." However, the sequence of gatherings—first the clan, then the formal diplomacy—made it clear who holds the voice that matters.
Key Insights on U.S.-Cuba Negotiations
Who is leading the negotiations between the U.S. and Cuba?
The negotiations are primarily led by the environment surrounding GAESA, rather than Miguel Díaz-Canel. Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," plays a significant role due to his ties with the military conglomerate.
What is GAESA's influence on the Cuban economy?
GAESA, the military-controlled conglomerate, manages between 40% and 70% of Cuba's economy and oversees 95% of the island's foreign currency transactions.
Why is Washington engaging with GAESA instead of Díaz-Canel?
Washington sees GAESA as a key player due to its control over economic resources and management capabilities, which are crucial for ensuring stability in Cuba.