In a recent interview with CiberCuba, Modesto Maidique, who served as the president of Florida International University (FIU) from 1986 to 2009, revealed that the United States has the capability to dominate Cuba's air and sea territories within just 48 hours, without the need for a ground invasion. This assertion was based on insights provided by a former student of his, a three-star admiral.
Maidique recounted an occasion when, while leading an academic program at FIU, he took the opportunity to question this high-ranking military officer directly: "If the United States wanted to 'take over' Cuba, how challenging would that be and what timeframe would it require?"
The admiral's response was unequivocal: "In 48 hours, the Cuban navy and air forces would be eliminated. The country would then be completely vulnerable to any conditions imposed by the United States without an additional shot being fired."
Military Action: A Last Resort?
Despite this military assessment, Maidique dismissed the likelihood or desirability of a ground invasion. "I believe a military action would cause immense pain, not only for Cubans on the island but also for those here who have relatives, friends, aunts, uncles, and siblings there. I see that as a drastic extreme," he remarked.
Instead, Maidique suggested a less violent yet equally crippling strategy for the Cuban regime: the U.S. might seize control of the sea and airspace surrounding Cuba.
Economic Strangulation as a Strategy
Maidique elaborated that shutting down Cuba's ports could lead to a "dramatic change in a very short period." Any military engagement would target armaments—ships, planes, or missiles—rather than civilians.
His analysis gains traction considering the severe deterioration of the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) of Cuba. The Cuban military stands at just 50,000 active personnel, with a budget of approximately $118 million and outdated Soviet equipment. Its navy and air force are deemed nearly inoperative due to fuel shortages and frequent power outages that have crippled the island, including five total blackouts in 2025 and one in January 2026.
Heightened Tensions Amid U.S.-Cuba Relations
Maidique's comments come at a time of heightened tension between Washington and Havana. On January 29, 2026, President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14380, declaring the Cuban regime an "extraordinary threat" to national security. Since then, Trump has ramped up his rhetoric on Cuba: on March 16, he stated he would be "honored to take Cuba"; on March 27, he claimed Cuba is next, but asked the press to pretend he hadn't said it; and on April 15, he hinted at a possible action following the conflict with Iran.
When asked how to interpret Trump's rhetoric, Maidique offered precise advice: "In President Trump's case, it's best to practically ignore what he says but pay close attention to what he does." He compared Trump's unpredictability to the long-term vision of Chinese President Xi Jinping, noting that while one thinks in terms of decades and generations, the other acts "every three minutes."
In response to the perceived threat, the Cuban regime declared a general mobilization on January 18, 2026. Meanwhile, Mike Hammer, the U.S. embassy's chief of mission in Havana, predicted a "historic change" on the island in 2026, asserting that there are individuals within the regime who recognize the project's impending end.
Frequently Asked Questions on U.S. Military Strategy Toward Cuba
How could the U.S. control Cuba without a ground invasion?
According to Modesto Maidique, the U.S. could dominate Cuba's air and sea territories in 48 hours, neutralizing its navy and air forces without firing additional shots.
What impact would closing Cuba's ports have?
Closing Cuba's ports could lead to a dramatic and rapid change, effectively crippling the regime by targeting military equipment rather than civilians.