Jorge Luis León, a Cuban historian living in exile, has confidently declared that Cuba will undergo a democratic transition by November 2026. He plans to return to the island that month, "holding his American passport and with Cuba being democratic once again."
León shared his conviction in a live interview with CiberCuba, during which he also criticized a signature-gathering campaign launched by the regime on April 19, called "My Signature for the Homeland."
"I am 76 years old, have undergone open-heart surgery, but I do not want to die without returning to Cuba, without seeing my daughters there, without reuniting with my friends, and without being able to go to the park and shout 'long live a free Cuba' once more," the historian expressed.
Confidence in a Political Shift
When asked why he was so certain the political transition in Cuba would occur by November, León pointed directly to Washington's influence.
"I am so sure because it seems that within the U.S. government, they have grown tired of this whole commotion and of having such a submissive enemy to dangerous forces like Russia and China so close to the United States, just 90 miles away."
The historian emphasized that China and Russia pose real threats to the United States, and he believes the Cuban regime has surrendered to these powers "for crumbs," forsaking any sovereign dignity.
Cuba's Dire Straits
"The conflict with the United States is the most foolish policy that could have been pursued in this century. From the last century to this one, a sterile and useless conflict that has only taken us back to the Stone Age," León asserted.
His words about the situation in Cuba were scathing: "We are in the caverns, without light, water, electricity, transportation, or dignity. There's not even a place to bury the dead. There aren't even coffins available."
León depicted scenes he described as "barbaric" and was blunt about the "My Signature for the Homeland" campaign launched by the Communist Party to support the "Girón is today and always" Declaration. "It's a farce, an act so miserable and low that it truly exposes the regime's shoddy essence. They resort to pressure to seek support they do not have."
U.S. Pressure on the Havana Regime
His statements come at a time of maximum U.S. pressure on the Havana regime. The Trump administration has imposed over 240 sanctions, including an executive order blocking 80% to 90% of Cuban oil imports, exacerbating power outages.
On April 10, a secret meeting took place in Havana between U.S. and Cuban delegations. It marked the first time a U.S. government plane had landed on the island since 2016.
"Ronald Reagan ended communism in the Soviet Union, and Trump will take credit for ending communism in America. In November, Cuba will be democratic again. I pray to God to grant me the joy of witnessing that before I die," León concluded.
Understanding the Path to a Democratic Cuba
Why does Jorge Luis León believe a democratic transition will occur in Cuba by November 2026?
León believes that the U.S. government has grown weary of Cuba's alliance with Russia and China, and anticipates a political shift due to increasing U.S. pressure on the Cuban regime.
What are some of the challenges facing Cuba according to León?
León describes Cuba as being in dire conditions, lacking basic necessities like light, water, electricity, and transportation, and highlights the absence of dignity and the inability to properly bury the dead.
What does León think about the "My Signature for the Homeland" campaign?
León criticizes the campaign as a farce, highlighting it as a desperate move by the regime to garner support through coercion.