Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Studies Institute at Florida International University (FIU), describes the Cuban regime as entering a phase of rage in response to mounting pressure from the United States, emphasizing that Havana's military mobilization is merely political theater.
Arcos uses the framework of the stages of grief to analyze the psychological and political evolution of the Cuban regime in a situation that, according to him, is irreversible.
"They are in the rage stage now because they realize the situation has fundamentally changed and won't revert to the way it was," Arcos stated.
Political Theater and Military Bravado
According to Arcos, in the early months of 2026, the regime was in the first stage: denial. However, it has since shifted to bravado and threats, suggesting that Cuba could defend itself against a potential US military attack.
"Anyone with even a basic understanding of the military capabilities of both nations knows this is impossible," Arcos asserted.
The analyst critiques the recent appearances of Díaz-Canel in olive-green military attire, despite his civilian role, drawing a direct comparison to Fidel Castro, whom he describes as "a master of theatrical performance."
Theatrics to Inspire Defiance
"There's a lot of theater involved here. Let's not forget one of Fidel Castro's qualities as a leader was his theatrical prowess," Arcos remarked, comparing his leadership style to figures like Hitler and Mussolini.
In an interview with Cibercuba, Arcos noted that the aim of such theatrics is clear: "They are trying to instill defiance in a population weary of listening to nonsensical rhetoric while enduring hunger."
As a case in point, Arcos referenced a photograph showing high-ranking Cuban military officers, all dressed in green and standing in a line, with noticeable bellies.
A Region on Edge
This analysis emerges amid heightened tensions. On April 16, Díaz-Canel appeared in military uniform warning of a supposed imminent US attack, coinciding with the anniversary of the Bay of Pigs invasion. Just days earlier, on April 13, President Donald Trump had declared that the US military would "make a stop in Cuba" after resolving issues in Iran.
The regional context exacerbates Cuba's situation. The downfall of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 removed Havana's primary Venezuelan ally, while Executive Order 14380, signed on January 29, imposes tariffs on nations supplying oil to Cuba.
Reports suggest the US has issued a two-week ultimatum for Cuba to release high-profile political prisoners.
In previous analyses, Arcos warned that real power in Cuba remains with Raúl Castro, and that the regime's nature makes some form of US military action inevitable, albeit contingent on the resolution of the conflict with Iran.
"I highly doubt the US would take action in Cuba without resolving the Iran issue first. It's not a question of military capability, but rather avoiding a public opinion crisis," Arcos clarified.
Understanding Cuba's Political Tensions
What does Sebastián Arcos say about Cuba's current political phase?
Sebastián Arcos states that Cuba is currently in a phase of rage, reacting to the irreversible changes brought about by US pressure.
Why does Arcos describe Havana's military mobilization as political theater?
Arcos considers it political theater because it serves as a tool to instill defiance in the Cuban population while being aware that actual military equivalence with the US is impossible.
What recent events have intensified the situation for Cuba?
The fall of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and Executive Order 14380, which imposes tariffs on oil suppliers to Cuba, have heightened the regime's challenges.