In recent developments, the dollar and euro have reached unprecedented highs in Cuba's informal market, marking significant price increases in their selling average, as reported by the independent media outlet elTOQUE on Sunday.
By the morning of April 12, the value of the U.S. dollar had skyrocketed to 525 CUP, indicating a three-peso rise compared to the previous day when it had also increased.
Meanwhile, the euro climbed to 592 CUP, marking a two-unit increase. This continuous rise in both currencies underscores a persistent trend of the Cuban peso's depreciation in the informal market, which remains a true barometer of the domestic economy in the absence of a functional official exchange system.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) has maintained its value at 395 CUP, a rate it achieved the day before, according to the daily report from elTOQUE.
Current Exchange Rates in Cuba
As of 7:51 a.m. on April 12, 2026, in Cuba, elTOQUE reports the following exchange rates:
- USD to CUP: 525 CUP
- EUR to CUP: 592 CUP
- MLC to CUP: 395 CUP
Future Projections and Market Volatility
What does the rest of the month hold? According to the latest bulletin from the Observatory of Currencies and Finances of Cuba (OMFi) for April, a moderate further depreciation of the national currency is the most likely scenario in the coming weeks, as revealed by elTOQUE on Friday.
Forecast models suggest that the euro might close the month around 604 CUP, while the dollar could reach 533 CUP, and the MLC may hover around 393 CUP. However, analysts caution that these figures are subject to considerable uncertainty.
The report itself indicates broad ranges of variation: the euro could fluctuate between 574 and 640 CUP, and the dollar between 503 and 590 CUP, reflecting the high volatility of Cuba's informal currency market.
A Fragile Stability Amidst Crisis
Despite a recent semblance of stability in buying and selling rates, this calm is seen as fragile. According to OMFi, it results more from a slowdown in economic activity than any structural improvement.
Several factors contribute to this temporary moderation, including reduced imports by small and medium-sized enterprises and a contraction in domestic trade, all in a context marked by:
- Persistent energy crisis
- Decline in international tourism
- Widespread economic depression
This reduced market pressure reflects an economy with diminished mobility and currency generation capabilities, rather than indicating any recovery.
The Persistent Gap with Official Markets
The analysis also questions the official narrative about the supposed conditions for establishing a more efficient formal exchange market. While the Central Bank of Cuba sets the official rate at 480 CUP per dollar and 554.16 CUP per euro in the so-called Segment III, these currencies are sold significantly higher in the informal market.
The gap is approximately 40 CUP for the dollar and over 30 CUP for the euro. This difference—between 5% and 8%—demonstrates that the informal market continues to be the real reference for price formation in the Cuban economy.
Underlying Causes of Peso Depreciation
Several unresolved structural issues underpin the peso's depreciation, including a severe drop in the inflow of foreign currency into the country.
Official data indicate a 56% year-over-year decline in tourist arrivals during February, compounded by challenges in key sectors such as nickel exports and medical services abroad. This contraction reduces the availability of foreign currency, increasing pressure on the informal market.
Energy Crisis and Rising Costs
The ongoing fuel shortage remains a central factor in the economic deterioration. While there have been occasional reliefs—such as private imports or the arrival of Russian oil—the situation continues to severely impact production activities.
Energy limitations raise transportation costs, halt industries, and elevate logistics expenses, directly affecting final prices and the purchasing power of the population.
In this scenario, bicycles and electric vehicles have become more prominent as mobility alternatives. However, their rising demand has also pushed prices up, adding further pressure on households.
The recent issuance of higher-denomination bills has facilitated some cash transactions in private businesses and the informal currency market. Nonetheless, this measure has limited reach.
Far from addressing underlying issues, the increased liquidity in pesos does not curb the currency's depreciation, which continues to lose value against foreign currencies.
With the dollar at historic highs and projections indicating further increases, the exchange landscape in Cuba remains dominated by uncertainty.
The combination of structural crisis, currency shortage, and lack of trust in official mechanisms keeps the informal market as the main economic barometer of the country, where every increase in the dollar directly impacts the wallets of Cubans.
USD to CUP Conversion Table
- 1 USD = 525 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,625 CUP
- 10 USD = 5,250 CUP
- 20 USD = 10,500 CUP
- 50 USD = 26,250 CUP
- 100 USD = 52,500 CUP
EUR to CUP Conversion Table
- 1 EUR = 592 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,960 CUP
- 10 EUR = 5,920 CUP
- 20 EUR = 11,840 CUP
- 50 EUR = 29,600 CUP
- 100 EUR = 59,200 CUP
Understanding Cuba's Informal Currency Market
What are the current exchange rates for the dollar and euro in Cuba's informal market?
As of April 12, 2026, the exchange rate for the U.S. dollar is 525 CUP, while the euro is at 592 CUP in Cuba's informal market.
How does the informal market impact the Cuban economy?
The informal market serves as the real indicator of economic conditions in Cuba, as the official market lacks functionality. It reflects the actual demand and supply dynamics, influencing the economy and the purchasing power of citizens.
Why is the Cuban peso depreciating?
The depreciation of the Cuban peso is attributed to unresolved structural issues, including a significant decline in foreign currency inflow due to decreased tourism and challenges in key sectors like nickel exports and medical services abroad.