Cuba is experiencing its most severe crisis since the Special Period of the 1990s, prompting a question that is increasingly common among analysts: Is Díaz-Canel's regime teetering on the brink of collapse, or will it endure like Fidel Castro's government did three decades ago? A recent analysis published in War on the Rocks explores this pressing issue.
Analyst Charles Larratt-Smith argues that the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces on January 3 was actually the first step in a strategy aimed at dismantling the Cuban regime. "The co-optation of the Venezuelan regime is a means to dismantle the regime in Cuba," he stated.
While evidence points to accelerated deterioration—marked by an energy crisis, economic collapse, and rising protests—the outcome remains uncertain. Unlike in the 1990s, the regime now faces more coordinated external pressure and a society that is increasingly exhausted, yet it still retains key control mechanisms, such as its repressive apparatus and GAESA's economic dominance.
Uncertain Future: Can the Regime Endure?
It is not a question of whether Cuba is in crisis, but whether this crisis has surpassed the threshold that has historically allowed the Castro regime to survive. For now, the balance between pressure and control remains unresolved, without a definitive outcome.
On the day of Maduro's capture, the subsidized fuel shipments from Venezuela to Cuba—ranging from 26,000 to 35,000 barrels daily—disappeared. Mexico also halted its shipments on January 29, following Trump's signing of Executive Order 14380, which declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs on any country supplying crude to the island.
Energy Crisis Fuels Unprecedented Protests
The United States intercepted seven tankers and temporarily blocked Russian oil, with The New York Times describing the move as the first effective blockade of Cuba since the 1962 Missile Crisis. The impact on the electrical system has been catastrophic. The generation deficit reached 1,885 MW during peak hours on March 25, resulting in blackouts lasting over 18 hours in several provinces. The Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant collapsed on March 5, and ten of the country's 16 thermoelectric units were out of service that same month.
The energy pressure has ignited an unprecedented wave of protests. In January, there were 953 protests and critical expressions, with 395 direct challenges to the State—marking the highest monthly figure in history, according to the Cuban Conflict Observatory. Starting March 7, demonstrations and banging of pots and pans spread from Havana to Ciego de Ávila, Matanzas, Santiago de Cuba, and Morón, where protesters damaged the Communist Party headquarters.
Grim Economic Outlook in Cuba
The economic landscape in Cuba is equally bleak. Since 2019, the Cuban GDP has fallen by 23%, with a projected decline of -7.2% for 2026. Tourism dropped by 9.2% in January, with 24,255 fewer visitors compared to the same month in 2025. More than 600,000 Cubans have left the island since 2022, depleting the country of much of its younger, active population.
Comparisons with the Special Period reveal differences that make the current situation potentially more severe. In the 1990s, Cuba started from a relatively strong economic base and achieved partial recovery in three years. Today, the crisis builds on three decades of continuous decline. The country currently produces far less than during the worst years of the Special Period, and the economic trend has been one of relentless decline since 2017. Moreover, the regime no longer possesses the political capital or "charisma" of Fidel Castro to sway international public opinion in its favor.
Enduring Factors of Resistance
Some factors of resistance remain in Cuba. The State's repressive apparatus is still operational. GAESA, the business conglomerate controlled by the Castro family, maintains control over profitable economic sectors. Additionally, the political leadership has initiated discreet negotiations with Washington.
The U.S. government has confirmed that these talks are ongoing, despite more than 240 additional sanctions already in place. The architecture of the strategy to overthrow the Cuban regime bears the signature of Marco Rubio, Secretary of State and son of Cuban immigrants. Larratt-Smith notes that Rubio "learned that the only way to weaken either regime was to cut the strong bilateral ties that ensured their collective survival." His condition for any normalization is categorical: "Cuba's system of government must change."
Trump, meanwhile, has been more direct, stating, "Cuba will fail very soon."
Key Questions About Cuba's Current Crisis
What is the current energy situation in Cuba?
Cuba is facing a severe energy crisis, with a generation deficit reaching 1,885 MW during peak hours, resulting in blackouts lasting over 18 hours in several provinces.
How has the economic crisis affected Cuba's population?
The economic crisis has led to a 23% decline in GDP since 2019 and a significant drop in tourism. Additionally, over 600,000 Cubans have left the island since 2022, affecting the younger, active demographic.
What role does GAESA play in Cuba's economy?
GAESA, a conglomerate controlled by the Castro family, plays a crucial role by maintaining control over Cuba's profitable economic sectors.