Vice President JD Vance is currently leading the unofficial race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination with 53% of the votes in the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) poll held this week in Grapevine, Texas. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emerged as his main competitor, garnering 35% support.
This outcome solidifies Vance's position as the favorite among the party's activist conservative wing, though it marks an eight-point drop from the 61% he secured at last year's CPAC.
The most notable surge is seen with Rubio, who in 2025 had a mere 3% in the same survey, yet now stands just 18 points behind the Vice President among over 1,600 event attendees.
Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. are tied at a distant 2%, while Rand Paul, Pete Hegseth, Ted Cruz, Greg Abbott, and Tulsi Gabbard each captured only 1% of the votes.
Factors Behind Rubio's Rising Popularity
Rubio's rise can be attributed to his prominent role as Secretary of State in three significant foreign policy achievements: the Gaza peace plan signed on October 9, 2025; Operation Absolute Resolve on January 3, 2026, which led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his extradition to New York on narcoterrorism charges; and his defense of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities that began on February 28, 2026.
These accomplishments have earned Rubio public praise from Trump, who, due to the 22nd Amendment, is ineligible for a third term.
Contrasting Profiles in the Republican Contest
The rivalry pits two distinct profiles against each other: Vance, with a 77% approval rating among Republicans, is a favorite within the MAGA base and has the backing of prominent figures like Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, and Elon Musk.
In contrast, Rubio is favored by the party's major donors, who reportedly showed 80% support for him over Vance's 20% during meetings at Mar-a-Lago, according to NBC News.
In prediction markets like Kalshi, Rubio had a slight edge as of mid-March, with a 19% chance compared to Vance's 18%, with over $17 million in traded volume.
Differences in Foreign Policy Stances
Vance has maintained a lower profile regarding the Iran conflict, which remains unpopular even among Republican bases. Trump has publicly remarked that the Vice President might be "perhaps less enthusiastic" about the Iran operation, a comment some interpret as a hint of his preferences.
Publicly, both have downplayed any rivalry. Vance told Fox News that Rubio is not his adversary, and observers suggest that if they teamed up, they could be unbeatable. Trump, meanwhile, has refrained from endorsing either candidate for 2028.
Key Questions About the 2028 Republican Nomination
What are JD Vance's key strengths in the 2028 GOP race?
JD Vance is seen as the favorite among the Republican MAGA base due to his strong conservative stance and has endorsements from significant figures like Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, and Elon Musk.
How has Marco Rubio gained popularity among Republican voters?
Marco Rubio has gained popularity due to his high-profile achievements in foreign policy as Secretary of State, particularly his role in the Gaza peace plan, Operation Absolute Resolve, and the defense of U.S. and Israeli actions against Iranian nuclear sites.