Mexican entrepreneur Fredo Arias-King, head of the CASLA Institute and an expert on post-communist democratic transitions, outlined in an interview with CiberCuba on Saturday the three critical missteps that should be avoided in Cuba following its liberation. His insights are drawn from an analysis of 30 nations that emerged from the Eurasian communist bloc between 1989 and 1991.
Arias-King, who authored the book Transiciones: La experiencia de Europa del Este and has advised Cuban opposition leaders, including the Cuban Resistance Assembly, highlighted the lessons that set apart successes—like Estonia, Czech Republic, and Poland—from failures such as Russia, Nicaragua, and Romania.
Avoiding the "Iron Law" of Transition
The foremost lesson, known in the study of transitions as the "iron law," emphasizes that the more the previous regime's elites are involved in the new order post-liberation, the worse the outcome for the country. "There isn't a single exception," warned Arias-King.
Filling the Leftist Void
Secondly, he stressed the importance of not leaving a void on the left and instead filling it with an anti-communist social democratic party. This strategy prevents the regime's elite from simply rebranding themselves and taking over that space to infiltrate the system.
Choosing the Right Democratic System
The third mistake to avoid is adopting a presidential democracy. Arias-King argues that in presidential systems, corruption needs only to reach one individual who holds power for a fixed term of four to six years. In contrast, a parliamentary system requires the prime minister to maintain stability with the support of Parliament.
Key Considerations for Cuba's Future
What is the "iron law" in transition studies?
The "iron law" suggests that the more involved the previous regime's elites are in the new post-liberation order, the worse the country's outcomes will be.
Why should a social democratic party be established in Cuba?
Establishing a social democratic party helps prevent the regime's elite from rebranding themselves and taking over the leftist political space, ensuring a genuine transition.
Why is a parliamentary system preferred over a presidential one?
A parliamentary system is preferred because it requires broader consensus for governance, reducing the risk of corruption compared to a presidential system where power is concentrated in one individual.