On Friday, Russia indicated that its oil exporters might declare force majeure on shipments from the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk. This announcement follows a series of Ukrainian drone attacks starting on March 23, which persisted for at least four consecutive nights, according to Reuters.
The attacks have been described as "the worst disruption since 2022" to Russia's oil exports, leading to at least 40% of the country's export capacity being out of commission due to port shutdowns, pipeline disruptions, and tanker seizures.
Ust-Luga and Primorsk are responsible for handling roughly 40% of Russia's crude oil exports, amounting to around two million barrels per day.
Impact on Global Oil Supply
Loading operations in Ust-Luga have been halted since March 25, with market sources predicting they won't resume until mid-April. While Primorsk sustained damage, it partially resumed operations on March 26.
The potential declaration of force majeure would relieve Russian exporters from their contractual delivery obligations, injecting further uncertainty into the global crude supply, just as Brent crude reached $112.57 a barrel on Saturday, marking its highest price since July 2022.
Cuba's Dire Situation
This development couldn't come at a worse time for Cuba, which hasn't received stable oil shipments since January 2026. The collapse of Venezuelan supplies, following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, and the suspension of Mexican shipments on January 27 under pressure from the Trump administration have left the island in a precarious position.
Cuba's electrical grid is experiencing generation deficits of up to 2,025 megawatts during peak hours, resulting in blackouts affecting 64% of the country. A nationwide blackout occurred on March 17, with the government admitting it was unsure of the exact cause.
Argelio Jesús Abad Vigoa, Cuba's First Deputy Minister of Energy and Mines, acknowledged a "more complex scenario than ever before," while Díaz-Canel conceded that "life is very hard," blaming the U.S. embargo and alleged media manipulation.
Will the Anatoly Kolodkin Reach Cuba?
In this context, the Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin—which set sail from Primorsk on March 8 with approximately 730,000 barrels of crude—is headed for the Caribbean as Cuba's most significant potential oil supply in months.
As of Saturday, the tanker was approximately 487 miles from Turks and Caicos, with an estimated arrival date of Monday, March 30, according to satellite tracking data.
However, there are several obstacles to the cargo reaching Cuba. On March 20, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a license explicitly banning the shipment of Russian oil to Cuba, excluding the island from temporary sanction exemptions granted to other buyers amid the Hormuz Strait crisis.
U.S. Coast Guard and warships are actively patrolling the Straits of Florida, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba, which analysts interpret as active monitoring of the Anatoly Kolodkin's progress.
A previous tanker, the Sea Horse, carrying about 190,000 barrels of Russian diesel, was diverted to Venezuela at the end of March due to pressure from Washington, without delivering its cargo to Cuba.
Though Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev called the Anatoly Kolodkin's shipment "humanitarian aid," former U.S. envoy to Havana, Lawrence Gumbiner, dismissed it as "political theater" testing Washington's sanction policies.
Even if the Anatoly Kolodkin manages to evade U.S. naval monitoring, disruptions at the Baltic ports—where the ship originated—could hinder future shipments for weeks or even months.
Cuba consumes around 100,000 barrels of oil daily and relies on fossil fuels for over 95% of its electricity generation. However, the country lacks the liquidity and access to financing needed to purchase crude on the international market at current prices.
Cuba's Oil Crisis: Key Questions Answered
What is the significance of Ust-Luga and Primorsk in Russia's oil exports?
Ust-Luga and Primorsk handle approximately 40% of Russia's crude oil exports, equating to around two million barrels per day, making them critical to Russia's oil export infrastructure.
How has Cuba been affected by the lack of oil shipments?
Cuba has faced severe energy shortages, with generation deficits leading to blackouts affecting 64% of the country. The island hasn't received stable oil shipments since early 2026, exacerbating its energy crisis.
What are the potential consequences of the Anatoly Kolodkin being blocked?
If the Anatoly Kolodkin is prevented from delivering its cargo, Cuba would lose a vital oil supply, worsening its energy predicament and forcing it to seek alternative, likely more expensive, sources.