U.S. Considers Venezuela-Style Intervention if Cuba Talks Fail, Says Center for a Free Cuba Director

John Suárez, Executive Director of the Center for a Free Cuba, revealed in an interview with CiberCuba that official documents from the Trump Administration explicitly consider a Venezuela-like operation against Cuba's regime if negotiations yield no results. Suárez emphasized that this is not an interpretation but a direct reading from these documents.

He highlighted three significant documents: the National Security Strategy from December 2025, which states that Washington will not tolerate hostile regimes in the Western Hemisphere; Executive Order 14380, signed on January 29, 2026, which declared a national emergency due to the "unusual and malign" threat posed by Cuba; and a Department of Defense strategy paper that explicitly uses the situation with Nicolás Maduro as a model for dealing with intransigent regimes.

"If the talks do not yield fruitful outcomes, that document outlines what happened with Maduro as a policy to be applied to uncompromising regimes in the hemisphere. That's what those three documents say," Suárez asserted.

Suárez also clarified that this strategy is not solely aimed at Cuba: "The document states that from Canada to the southern tip of America, this is the policy they have in mind. It's not just for Cuba; it's for anyone."

The Stalemate in Negotiations

These statements come amid negotiations that seem to have stalled. Miguel Díaz-Canel publicly acknowledged on March 13 that talks with the Trump Administration are ongoing, after having formally denied them until March 10. Díaz-Canel also admitted on March 25 that Raúl Castro is leading the negotiations from the Cuban side, with his grandson Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," as a key interlocutor with Marco Rubio's team.

Suárez interpreted the public appearance of Raúl’s grandson with Díaz-Canel as a deliberate signal of who truly holds the power. "I believe Miguel Díaz-Canel is the new Osvaldo Dorticós. He neither has influence nor authority. He's there because Raúl Castro put him there," he stated. He added about this display, "At a moment when they are worried about what might happen, they want to show who is really in charge. It's crude, but effective."

Democracy vs. Diplomatic Talks

The director of the Center for a Free Cuba made a critical distinction between the talks between Washington and Havana—which are between two governments and could result in an agreement on U.S. national interests—and a genuine democratic transition, which would require dialogue between the regime and the Cuban people.

"The conversations are between the Trump Administration and the Cuban dictatorship. The most important and fundamental conversation has not been held, which is the dialogue between the dictatorship and the Cuban people on how they can reclaim their sovereignty," he warned.

Regarding the Helms-Burton Act, which turns 30 in 2026, Suárez noted that the regime has a clear legal path forward: release all political prisoners—Prisoners Defenders lists 1,214, a record number—legalize dissent and political parties, and commit to free multi-party elections. He expressed skepticism that the current Congress would pass a law to repeal this legislation.

"The regime's trajectory over the past 67 years has been riddled with tactics to buy time and remain in power; that has always been their strategy," Suárez concluded, leaving open the question of whether this time the outcome will be different.