Paul Webster Hare, who served as the United Kingdom's ambassador to Cuba from 2001 to 2004, recently dismissed the notion of a U.S. military intervention in Cuba during an interview with CiberCuba. He provided a diplomatic perspective on the ongoing negotiations between Washington and Havana, drawing from insights into the discussions between the Trump Administration and the Cuban regime.
The former diplomat highlighted that the most significant segment of Cuban opposition has emigrated—over two million people have left since the pandemic began. He argued that intervention would merely trigger another humanitarian crisis, stating, "It doesn't serve the United States, and it doesn't serve Cuba." He also expressed optimism that the U.S. Secretary of State shares this viewpoint, commenting, "Marco Rubio aims to reunite the Cuban family, to unify the Cuban spirit."
Currently a professor at Boston University's Pardee School, Hare was forthright: "In Cuba, there is no organized and substantial opposition like there is with María Corina Machado and Edmundo González in Venezuela. Without that element, a military action lacks political grounding," he observed.
Insights into U.S.-Cuba Negotiations
Discussing the negotiations between the Trump Administration and the Cuban regime, Hare mentioned that these talks have taken place in Mexico, a nation with historical ties to both parties involved.
On February 18, Axios unveiled that Marco Rubio's contacts were with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," who is Raúl Castro's grandson and head of the Ministry of the Interior's General Directorate of Personal Security. Meanwhile, Spain's ABC newspaper reported conversations with Alejandro Castro Espín in Mexico. These details indicate that real power remains with the Castro family, not with Díaz-Canel.
The Role of Cuban Leadership
Hare suggested that Díaz-Canel's role in any transition would be minimal: "Miguel Díaz-Canel has a clear role with the communist party to display strong resistance always." He further noted that, according to the Cuban constitution, Díaz-Canel should step down from government in two years.
Reflecting on Raúl Castro, Hare described him as more pragmatic: "He perhaps preferred a model with a prosperous private sector, yet maintaining a single party, akin to China. It was Raúl who signed the agreement with Obama in 2014, which Fidel criticized shortly before his death," he recalled.
The diplomat proposed an economic reconstruction model akin to a Marshall Plan: investing in agriculture, tourism, communications, and nickel. "Creating a Switzerland in the Caribbean, a Singapore in the Caribbean, exploiting its natural resources, tourism, nickel, and proximity to the world's largest market," he suggested.
Influence of Cuban-American Leaders
Hare also mentioned Rosa María Payá, 37-year-old daughter of Oswaldo Payá, as a potential representative of Cuban Americans in a future administration, following her father's constitutional and peaceful approach.
Furthermore, Hare cautioned that President Trump's statements about "taking" Cuba could hinder negotiations. "President Trump's statements, in my view, do not assist these negotiations," he remarked.
Regarding the Helms-Burton Act, he noted that it explicitly prohibits economic aid to the Castro family, limiting the role of figures like Óscar Pérez Oliva Fraga, Fidel Castro's great-nephew and Deputy Prime Minister.
"The conditions are critical, catastrophic. Not only in terms of oil, energy, and food but also due to the scarcity of medicines," Hare summarized.
The diplomat was unequivocal in assessing the halt of Obama's thaw: "In my opinion, they've lost 10 years," he said, referring to the time elapsed since the historic visit of the former Democratic president to Havana in March 2016.
Understanding the U.S.-Cuba Relationship
Why does Paul Webster Hare oppose military intervention in Cuba?
Hare believes that military intervention would not benefit either the United States or Cuba, as it would likely lead to a new humanitarian crisis without solving political issues.
What is the significance of the negotiations between the U.S. and Cuba?
The negotiations are crucial as they represent efforts to address longstanding issues and potentially improve relations between the two countries, though they are complicated by internal and external political dynamics.
Who is Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro?
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, also known as "El Cangrejo," is the grandson of Raúl Castro and head of the Ministry of the Interior's General Directorate of Personal Security. He is involved in talks with U.S. representatives.