Julio Shiling, a Cuban political analyst and director of the Patria de Martí think tank, has publicly advocated for U.S. military intervention in Cuba. In a live interview with CiberCuba on Monday, Shiling argued that the Castro regime will not relinquish power without the threat or execution of military action.
The interview, conducted by Tania Costa, coincided with Cuba experiencing its sixth nationwide blackout in 18 months. This complete shutdown of the National Electroenergetic System lasted approximately 29.5 hours.
"Communist Cuba has never been in a worse state. That's why it’s time," Shiling asserted. When asked if he believes military intervention is imminent, he replied, "I hope so, Tania, because frankly, it’s what's been missing in the Cuban context so far."
Shiling was unequivocal in his stance that without military pressure, the regime will not step down: "Without military action or the threat of it, no. Do I believe they will hand over power absent such action? Absolutely not," he stated.
The political analyst dismissed the proposal by Deputy Prime Minister Óscar Pérez-Oliva, announced Tuesday, allowing emigrants to invest in private businesses on the island. He labeled it a tactic to bide time until the U.S. midterm elections in November 2026.
"This proposal is just a time-buying trick. The United States should tell the Cuban regime not to insult our intelligence with such nonsense," Shiling remarked.
To support his argument, Shiling differentiated between authoritarian and totalitarian regimes. He elaborated that totalitarian dictatorships — like Cuba's — do not transition to democracy through economic advancement, but instead become more entrenched. He cited China as an example: Deng Xiaoping's economic opening in 1978 did not lead to democracy but culminated in the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. "Totalitarian dictatorships do not respond to economic improvement by transitioning to democracy. On the contrary, they strengthen dictatorial power," he emphasized.
Shiling proposed a specific strategy for Washington: file federal charges against high-ranking regime officials, including the Castro family, pursue lawsuits against GAESA and its assets in Panama, and employ drones to destroy military and intelligence targets.
He also pointed out that the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, showed the feasibility of such operations: "We're not talking about invasion. Many said there was no invasion in Venezuela. There wasn't. It was a completely successful operation in much more challenging circumstances than Cuba."
Moreover, Shiling warned of the regional repercussions of inaction: "If communist Cuba survives this, the United States has wasted its time miserably. And in Venezuela, we will see Chavismo return under another president."
Shiling's position contrasts sharply with that of former congressman Joe García, who in a recent interview argued against sending American troops to die in Cuba. It also differs from a statement by Trump, who last Thursday ruled out a direct military intervention, though he predicted that "Cuba will fall quite soon."
Understanding the Call for Military Intervention in Cuba
What is Julio Shiling's main argument for U.S. military intervention in Cuba?
Shiling argues that the Castro regime will not voluntarily relinquish power without the threat or execution of military action by the United States.
How does Shiling differentiate between authoritarian and totalitarian regimes?
Shiling explains that totalitarian regimes, like Cuba's, do not transition to democracy through economic development. Instead, they become more entrenched, as seen in China post-1978.
What strategy does Shiling propose for the U.S. regarding Cuba?
Shiling suggests filing federal charges against Cuban officials, targeting GAESA's assets, and using drones for military and intelligence operations.