Political analyst and journalist Rubén Cortés recently cautioned that any negotiation process between the United States and Cuba is likely to involve intense bargaining. He emphasized that the Havana regime is well-versed in leveraging these dialogues to its advantage.
His comments, which were featured on the Mexican channel UnoTV's program Noticias en Claro, followed the confirmation by Miguel Díaz-Canel that Cuban officials are engaged in discussions with representatives from the U.S. government.
Cuban Regime's Tactics in Negotiations
Cortés did not mince words when discussing the Cuban counterpart: "Díaz-Canel was appointed, not elected; he was handpicked by Raúl Castro," highlighting the undemocratic nature of his position.
The analyst pointed out that the regime often uses dialogue to buy time and might announce limited economic reforms—like allowing some private property or overseas Cuban investments—to appear open without making political concessions.
Washington's Economic Focus
Regarding U.S. objectives, Cortés was clear: "At this stage, the U.S. is not seeking a systemic change in Cuba. The focus is on economic transformation."
He also warned that any cracks in the regime's defenses could lead to immediate consequences: "A small opening in Cuba could quickly allow the power of exiles to seep in."
Past Negotiation Failures
The analyst contextualized the current situation within a history of unsuccessful negotiations between Havana and Washington.
In the 1970s, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger attempted to negotiate lifting the embargo if Cuba ceased exporting revolution to Latin America. This effort collapsed when Cuba intervened in Angola with 60,000 troops.
In 1996, the Cuban Air Force's downing of two Brothers to the Rescue planes, which killed four people, strained relations during the Clinton administration and resulted in the signing of the Helms-Burton Act.
Even President Obama's thaw in relations failed to trigger political changes on the island.
Influence of the Cuban Lobby in Washington
Cortés noted the significant influence of the Cuban-American lobby in Washington as a distinguishing factor.
In South Florida, approximately three million Cubans reside, with half of them being U.S. citizens. This community includes half a dozen congresspeople, two senators, and even the current Secretary of State.
"Marco Rubio is a seasoned negotiator, having chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for 15 years, and he is currently the most experienced U.S. politician with a vested interest in Cuba," Cortés stated.
He emphasized that Marco Rubio is expected to play a pivotal role in any potential agreement with Havana.
Current Pressures on Havana
Negotiations are taking place amid intense pressure on the Cuban government.
Since January 2026, Washington has imposed a quarantine on oil shipments to the Cuban government and pressured Mexico to halt crude deliveries to the island.
The capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3rd severed Cuba's main oil subsidy.
Additionally, Cuba's economy is projected to contract by 7.2% this year, with power outages lasting up to 20 hours daily and a severe fuel shortage.
At the Summit of the Americas in Miami on March 7th, President Donald Trump remarked that Cuba "wants to negotiate," joking that "Rubio will take an hour off and then close a deal on Cuba."
According to Bloomberg, Washington's strategy aims to turn Cuba into an economic protectorate through financial pressure and energy isolation.
Questions About U.S.-Cuba Relations
What are the main goals of the U.S. in negotiating with Cuba?
The United States primarily seeks economic changes in Cuba rather than a systemic overhaul.
How has the Cuban regime historically approached negotiations with the U.S.?
The Cuban regime is known for using negotiations to buy time and often projects an image of economic flexibility without making political concessions.
What role does Marco Rubio play in U.S.-Cuba negotiations?
Marco Rubio, a seasoned politician with significant experience in foreign relations, is expected to be a key figure in any negotiations with the Cuban government.