The intervention by Miguel Díaz-Canel on March 13 was described by analyst Sebastián Arcos as a "carefully choreographed theater." Arcos, the acting director of the Cuban Studies Institute at Florida International University, emphasized that the real revelations were not just in Díaz-Canel's words, but in the imagery and power dynamics displayed on Cuban television.
Before the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of Cuba, the Cuban leader confirmed ongoing discussions between Havana and Washington. This statement marked a dramatic shift from the regime's earlier denial of such talks.
"He acknowledged that there are indeed conversations occurring between the United States and Cuba. Recently, regime officials had been insisting that there were no such talks. Either there is a lack of communication within the regime, or there was a deliberate strategy to deny to the Cuban people that negotiations were taking place," stated Arcos.
The most striking revelation was the presence of Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "the Crab" and a lieutenant colonel in MININT, at the Political Bureau meeting, despite not being a member. This indicated who truly holds power in Cuba.
His attendance was interpreted as being Raúl Castro's eyes and ears: "He's there to remind Díaz-Canel who's really in charge, and he'll report back to his grandfather about the meeting's proceedings. He shouldn’t be at that meeting, yet there he was," noted Arcos.
Díaz-Canel's own words—that the talks are "led by the Army General and historic leader of our revolution, Raúl Castro, and myself"—were seen as an unintended admission of the actual power structure.
"The real power in Cuba is wielded by Raúl Castro, not the president or the party's first secretary. Ultimately, it is Raúl Castro, retired and without an official position, who calls the shots," Arcos explained, highlighting that Raúl, although in his nineties, remains an Army General in Cuba.
The Context Behind the Admission
Several factors forced the regime to acknowledge its negotiations with the United States. Havana faced at least a week of protests characterized by pot-banging due to power outages lasting up to 21 hours daily, following a breakdown at the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant, which left over six million people without electricity.
Additionally, during the "Shield of the Americas" summit in Miami, President Trump declared that Cuba wanted to negotiate with Marco Rubio and his administration, making the regime's denial untenable.
The Regime's Minimal Concessions
The regime announced three concessions: the release of 51 prisoners after discussions with the Vatican—without labeling them as political prisoners—the authorization for the FBI to investigate the Florida boat incident, and the opening to Cuban-American diaspora investments.
Arcos described these concessions as "minimal" and "insignificant." Cuba has over 1,200 recognized political prisoners, with Justicia 11J reporting at least 760 active as of March 12. In contrast, Venezuela released 500 prisoners in its negotiations, ten times more.
Regarding the boat incident, Arcos was unequivocal: "From the start, I've said this incident bears all the hallmarks of a Cuban intelligence operation."
He pointed out that the regime included in its list of expedition members someone who was in Miami at the time, suggesting that the Cuban government had prior knowledge. Discrepancies in the official Cuban account of the incident further support this theory.
Arcos underscores that the regime's strategy is to buy time. While negotiating with the United States, Díaz-Canel returns to military rhetoric, aiming to prolong talks as long as possible until after the U.S. midterm elections in November or even until President Trump's term ends in three years.
"That is their primary goal," asserted the analyst.
Insights into Cuba-U.S. Negotiations
Why did Díaz-Canel admit to talks with the U.S.?
Díaz-Canel's admission was likely prompted by escalating internal pressures, including widespread protests over power outages and external pressure from statements by President Trump about Cuba's desire to negotiate.
What was the significance of Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro's presence at the meeting?
His presence was a clear indication of Raúl Castro's continued influence and control over Cuban political affairs, emphasizing who truly holds power in the country.
How did Arcos view the concessions made by the Cuban regime?
Arcos saw the concessions as minimal and insignificant, especially when compared to the larger number of political prisoners still detained and the broader context of Venezuela's more substantial prisoner releases.
What is the regime's strategy in negotiating with the U.S.?
The strategy appears to be to extend negotiations as long as possible, potentially to outlast the current U.S. political climate, including the upcoming midterm elections and President Trump's administration.