Cuban opposition figure José Daniel Ferrer declared on Friday that the regime in Havana might face its downfall within weeks. He even pointed to a specific date, which he based on his personal interpretation of recent statements made by U.S. President Donald Trump.
In a live Facebook broadcast, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Cuba (UNPACU) claimed to have "discovered" the number of days remaining until the U.S. intervenes in Cuba's governance.
"I've figured out how many days are left before Donald Trump takes action against the Castros and Díaz-Canel: two months and three days," Ferrer announced to his followers.
Ferrer explained that his conclusion came after hearing Trump say he would not pursue military intervention in Cuba. According to Ferrer, a similar statement was made by Trump regarding Venezuela, which was followed by significant events there.
"Earlier today, Trump told a journalist he wasn't planning on military intervention in Cuba. Coincidentally, on October 31 or November 1 last year, Trump made a similar statement about Venezuela, saying he wasn't planning military intervention there, and two months and three days later, Maduro faced troubles," Ferrer recounted.
He extended this parallel to the Cuban situation, concluding that the regime's collapse was inevitable within a similar timeframe.
"If Trump said today he wouldn't intervene in Cuba, knowing the danger and wickedness of those miserable criminals, it's clear that in two months and three days, the Castros and Canel are done for," he asserted.
In a lighter tone, Ferrer jokingly mentioned the possibility of American Tomahawk missiles being part of any military action, though he did so ironically.
"The Tomahawks will be on their way unless they leave first, but don't tell them... let's keep this a secret to ensure no Tomahawk misses," he concluded.
While Ferrer didn't specify an exact date during his broadcast, if one considers March 13—the day Trump publicly ruled out military action against Cuba—as a starting point, the two months and three days frame would place his prediction around May 16.
Trump's Stance on Cuba
Ferrer’s comments followed President Trump's denial of any U.S. military intervention in Cuba.
In a phone interview with the Washington Examiner, Trump was asked if a military operation in Cuba might trigger conflicts with drug cartels and other hostile entities in Latin America.
His response was brief and decisive: "That's not going to happen."
The newspaper had developed this hypothesis from Trump's earlier remarks suggesting that Cuba could be next on his agenda after U.S. operations in Iran. However, this time, Trump dismissed the idea of direct military action and did not provide further details on Washington's strategy towards Havana.
Negotiations and Tensions: A Volatile Context
Ferrer’s statements come amid significant political uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Cuba relations.
Recently, Miguel Díaz-Canel publicly confirmed high-level talks with Washington, reportedly initiated by Raúl Castro. This acknowledgment marked a notable shift from the Cuban government's previous denials.
Ferrer sharply criticized this admission, accusing the regime of lying about the existence of U.S. contacts.
"Pathological liars," Ferrer declared in another message following the Cuban leader's announcement.
According to Ferrer, this public acknowledgment proves the government was aware of these negotiations for some time but chose to hide them.
"I'm listening to the dictator Díaz-Canel. What planet does this guy live on?" he expressed at the time.
Demanding Democratic Transition
Ferrer, who was released from Cuban imprisonment on October 13, 2025, and exiled to Miami with his wife Nelva Ortega and their three children at the U.S. government's request, has maintained a clear stance on U.S.-Cuba talks.
While he supports international pressure against the Cuban government, he has repeatedly warned against any deals that focus solely on economic reforms without deep political changes.
In a direct message to Trump, Ferrer insisted that any negotiation must lead to the end of the current political system.
"We don't want negotiations that only result in economic openness; we want the end of tyranny and an immediate transition to democracy," he wrote recently.
His position aligns with worries expressed by various Cuban exile groups, who fear that talks between the two governments could replicate the 2014-2016 diplomatic thaw, which eased sanctions but failed to produce political changes on the island.
As negotiations continue and Cuba's economic crisis worsens, Ferrer maintains that the regime is facing a critical juncture.
For the opposition leader, the combination of international pressure and internal decline suggests an imminent outcome, although his prediction of a specific date for the regime's fall is more a personal interpretation of events than a confirmation of impending action.
Frequently Asked Questions About José Daniel Ferrer's Prediction
What did José Daniel Ferrer predict about the Cuban regime?
José Daniel Ferrer predicted that the Cuban regime could fall within weeks, specifically pointing to a timeframe of two months and three days based on his interpretation of Donald Trump's statements.
What was President Trump's statement regarding Cuba?
President Trump stated that the U.S. would not engage in military intervention in Cuba, a declaration that Ferrer linked to a pattern he believes preceded changes in Venezuela.
How has Ferrer reacted to U.S.-Cuba negotiations?
Ferrer has been critical of the Cuban regime for lying about negotiations and insists any talks must lead to political change, not just economic reforms.