President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a bold economic strategy for Cuba. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, this plan involves exerting financial pressure and reshaping internal power dynamics to turn the island into a nation heavily reliant on Washington. Analysts describe this approach as akin to creating a U.S. economic protectorate.
Rather than a direct military intervention, the strategy would involve gradual financial pressure, energy isolation, and negotiations with key figures within the Cuban political system to orchestrate a controlled transition.
Economic Pressure to Ensure Dependence
Insiders in Washington reveal that the ultimate goal is to replace Cuba's current leadership and overhaul its economic model, drawing the island closer to the United States' sphere of influence.
Bloomberg reports that Trump's plan is to use economic leverage to make Cuba financially dependent on Washington, effectively stepping into the role the Soviet Union played during the Cold War. Those familiar with the initiative explain that the U.S. aims to essentially replace the Soviet Union, which kept Cuba afloat until its collapse in 1991.
In a recent statement to CNN, Trump confidently predicted the downfall of the Cuban regime, stating, “Cuba will fall quite soon.” He added, “Cuba is ready, after 50 years.”
Pressure Mounts on Cuba's Energy Supply
Since January, the White House has ramped up economic pressure on Havana. Measures include blocking oil shipments intended for the Cuban government, aiming to strangle the state energy-wise while allowing fuel to flow to the emerging private sector.
Trump has also reportedly used tariff threats to persuade Mexico, one of Cuba’s last major oil suppliers after Venezuela’s exit, to halt deliveries. Currently, the U.S. controls energy flow to Cuba by permitting fuel sales to the private sector but blocking supplies to the government.
A Venezuela-Inspired Model
Bloomberg's sources indicate that Trump views Venezuela's recent political shift as a blueprint. In this scenario, the U.S. managed to displace Nicolás Maduro swiftly and subsequently supported a more U.S.-friendly administration led by Delcy Rodríguez, who maintains socialist rhetoric but collaborates with Washington, opening strategic sectors to American investment.
Trump has even praised Rodríguez for her willingness to work with the U.S. The strategy for Cuba would follow a similar path: replacing the current leadership without dismantling the system entirely, steering the country towards a close economic relationship with Washington.
Engaging with Key Figures
U.S. officials have reportedly engaged in discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Rodríguez Castro, a colonel in the Ministry of the Interior, is closely linked to the military conglomerate that controls vital sectors of Cuba's economy.
Within the Trump administration, some view him as a pragmatic leader potentially capable of negotiating deals outside the revolutionary orthodoxy. The aim in Washington is to replace current President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who is blamed for the island’s economic collapse and seen as incapable of leading necessary political and economic reforms.
Republican Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart confirmed ongoing talks with individuals "close" to Raúl Castro, expressing to CBS that the current Cuban regime might not outlast Trump’s presidency, which extends to January 2029.
Speculation of Intervention and Negotiated Transition
Speculation about a possible U.S. military action against Cuba has grown in Washington, fueled by statements from the president's allies. For instance, Senator Lindsey Graham told Fox News, “Iran will fall, and Cuba is next.”
However, those close to Trump assert that military invasion is not the preferred option. The current approach favors a negotiated transition within Cuba’s system, coupled with economic pressure to expedite the process.
Kimberly Breier, former Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs during Trump’s first term, explained that the objective is to avoid chaos. “The dominant factor in both Venezuela and Cuba is stability,” Breier stated. “The administration wants changes, but not chaotic ones that drive mass migration or create more space for adversaries.” This represents a “more gradual, stability-based approach.”
Havana's Response
The Cuban government has condemned Washington’s energy pressure tactics. Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío called the U.S. quarantine on energy imports “a form of collective punishment that persists.”
President Miguel Díaz-Canel has reiterated Cuba’s willingness to engage in dialogue with the U.S., but only “on equal terms,” and warned that the nation is bolstering its defensive capabilities.
An Economy on the Brink
The U.S. plan emerges amid a severe economic crisis in Cuba. Decades of centralized planning, international sanctions, and the loss of strategic allies have left the Cuban economy facing energy shortages, inflation, and a growing humanitarian crisis.
To mitigate the situation, Washington has sent $9 million in humanitarian aid through the Catholic Church to prevent funds from reaching the Cuban government.
Bloomberg suggests that the economic situation might provide Trump with a political opportunity to make headway in Cuba, even if other international fronts, like the conflict with Iran, drag on. Nevertheless, experts point out that transitioning in Cuba poses significant challenges.
For over six decades, Cuba’s political system has banned opposition parties, limiting the emergence of figures capable of leading a potential democratic transition. Moreover, unlike Venezuela, Cuba lacks substantial oil reserves or other natural resources to attract large-scale foreign investment easily.
Despite these obstacles, Trump recently declared that the Cuban system is nearing its demise. At a summit of Latin American leaders in Doral, Florida, he asserted that Cuba is “in its final moments as it was.”
He added that once the Iranian front is resolved, his administration will focus entirely on the island. “The focus right now is on Iran,” he said, jokingly adding that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “will take an hour off and then close a deal on Cuba.”
Cuban Crisis: Key Questions Answered
How is the Trump administration planning to impact Cuba's economy?
The administration aims to use economic pressure to make Cuba financially dependent on the U.S., leveraging control over energy supplies and negotiating with internal political figures to orchestrate a transition.
What is the role of Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro in the U.S. strategy for Cuba?
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, a colonel in Cuba's Ministry of the Interior and closely linked to the military, is seen as a pragmatic potential leader who could negotiate agreements with the U.S. outside the traditional revolutionary framework.
Why is Cuba's economic situation relevant to U.S. interests?
Cuba's economic crisis presents an opportunity for the U.S. to exert influence and potentially reshape the island's political and economic landscape, aligning it more closely with American interests.