U.S. Military Intervention in Cuba: An Inevitable Move, Analyst Suggests

Sebastián Arcos, acting director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, expressed on Friday that the United States might eventually have no choice but to launch a military operation in Cuba to force the regime to relinquish power.

Arcos shared these thoughts during an interview with CiberCuba amidst an unprecedented political and energy crisis on the island, marked by seven consecutive nights of protests featuring pot-banging in Havana and other cities. The latest protest occurred in Morón (Cienfuegos), where young demonstrators set fire to the local Communist Party headquarters.

"I'm stating that the United States will be left with no alternative but to initiate a military operation in Cuba to compel the regime to step down, as they won't do so voluntarily," the analyst asserted.

Potential Forms of Intervention

Arcos clarified that intervention doesn't necessarily mean deploying Marines; it could involve remote operations similar to those carried out in Iran, where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28 in a joint U.S.-Israel airstrike on his Tehran residence. "They could do to Raúl Castro and Díaz-Canel what was done to Khamenei," he suggested.

He pointed out that Cuba is a militarily vulnerable target: situated only 90 miles from the U.S. mainland, the island is ten times smaller than Iran and possesses a "very limited and outdated" military capability. "For the United States, Cuba is a military walk in the park," Arcos commented, adding that Washington has "enough Tomahawk missiles to handle both Iran and Cuba simultaneously."

Diplomatic Dynamics and Internal Power Struggles

These statements came on the same day that Díaz-Canel confirmed Cuba is engaged in talks with the United States, contradicting previous regime denials.

Arcos analyzed the announcement as a result of mounting pressure from street protests and the Trump administration. He also noted that real power in Cuba doesn’t lie with Díaz-Canel. "The true power in Cuba resides with Raúl Castro, not with the president of the Republic and the first secretary of the party," he remarked.

As evidence, Arcos mentioned Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo" and Raúl Castro's grandson, attending the Political Bureau meeting on March 13, despite not being a member. Reports from media outlets like Axios and the Miami Herald have indicated secret talks between Rodríguez Castro and Marco Rubio's team regarding a potential political transition since February.

Limited Concessions and Strategic Dilemmas

The analyst described the release of 51 prisoners announced by Díaz-Canel as a "minimal" concession compared to the over 1,200 political prisoners documented in Cuba by Prisoners Defenders.

"We're practically at ground zero in these negotiations. They haven't conceded anything," he said, unfavorably comparing the figure to the more than 500 released in Venezuela amid their negotiations.

Arcos depicted the regime's predicament as a no-win situation: "If they don't repress, opposition grows. If they do, the U.S. will intervene." Referring to the February 25 incident at Cayos Falcones, where Cuban Coast Guard forces killed four of ten passengers from a Florida-bound boat (with a fifth dying later from injuries), the analyst stated it "bears all the hallmarks of a Cuban intelligence operation."

On March 13, the same day, Trump publicly ruled out direct military actions against Cuba, opting instead for economic pressure, while Democratic senators introduced a resolution to block attacks without Congressional approval.

Despite these developments, Arcos maintained his forecast: "I hope they retain some rationality, as the future we face in the coming weeks depends on it."