Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo, a distinguished Cuban economist and professor at Pontifical Xavierian University in Cali, with a doctorate in International Economics from Complutense University of Madrid, issued a stark warning on Friday. He stated that without a preceding political shift, genuine economic reform in Cuba is unattainable.
In an interview with CiberCuba, de Miranda asserted that the trajectory of the Cuban regime is leading towards a "Russian-style transformation," characterized by the monopolization of the nation's resources by a power-linked oligarchy.
This conversation took place on the same day Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel admitted to talks with the United States, which the government had denied just days before. Notably, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo" and Raúl Castro's grandson, was present at a high-level Communist Party and Council of Ministers meeting, despite holding no official position.
"Can there be economic change in Cuba without political change? In my view, absolutely not," de Miranda declared during his discussion with CiberCuba.
According to de Miranda, the Cuban government's historical pattern is clear: they relax policies when under extreme pressure, only to halt reforms once the pressure subsides.
The Russian Model: A Warning for Cuba
De Miranda expressed concern that Cuba might mimic Russia's 1990s model, where privatizations favored power-connected oligarchs, leading to authoritarian capitalism. "What's the risk here? That economic transformations occur in a Russian manner," he noted, emphasizing that while this might benefit the regime, it would be disastrous for the country and its people.
He critiqued Decree-Law 114/2025, which governs partnerships between state and private enterprises, accusing it of maintaining power discretion and promoting corruption. Additionally, he highlighted that GAESA, a military conglomerate controlling key economic sectors and reportedly generating $2.1 billion, operates without oversight from the General Comptroller of the Republic.
The presence of "El Cangrejo" at a high-level meeting without an official role further exemplifies, according to de Miranda, the institutional decay within the regime. "This shows the extent of institutional disintegration in Cuba, where individuals hold responsibilities without real power," he remarked.
Political Maneuvering and Economic Realities
It's noteworthy that Senator Marco Rubio allegedly engaged with "El Cangrejo" about a potential transition in Cuba.
De Miranda also pointed out a revealing slip by Díaz-Canel, who mentioned the "self-determination of both governments" instead of "self-determination of the people." De Miranda suggested this was telling, especially as Cuba had only recently denied negotiations with the U.S. before being compelled to acknowledge them.
The economic statistics de Miranda presented are grim. According to The Economist Intelligence Unit, the Cuban GDP is expected to shrink by 7.2% in 2026, following a 5% decline in 2025 as confirmed by the Center for Cuban Economic Studies. "The cumulative contraction is 23% since 2019. It's staggering over seven years," he calculated. From 1990 to 2024, Cuba's economy only grew by an accumulated 1.1%. The sugar harvest for 2024-2025 was even lower than that of 1899.
De Miranda agreed with Cuban-American entrepreneur Carlos Saladrigas on the necessity of a Marshall Plan to rebuild Cuba's economy—a proposal he first suggested in 2017-2018—but stressed that without real political conditions, external investment remains unfeasible. These conditions include guaranteed property rights, financial markets, labor and currency markets, and full civil rights for Cubans abroad, including voting rights.
"There is no light at the end of the tunnel under current political conditions. I say this clearly," de Miranda concluded.
Understanding Cuba's Economic and Political Challenges
Why is political change crucial for Cuba's economic reform?
Political change is essential because the current regime's structure prevents genuine economic reform. Without altering the political landscape, economic policies remain under the control of a power-linked oligarchy, hindering true progress.
What are the risks of a Russian-style transformation in Cuba?
A Russian-style transformation could lead to the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few, similar to Russia's 1990s model. This would result in an authoritarian capitalist system that benefits the regime at the expense of the people.
How has Cuba's economy performed in recent years?
Cuba's economy has been struggling, with a projected GDP contraction of 7.2% in 2026 and a 5% decline in 2025. The cumulative economic contraction since 2019 is 23%, and growth from 1990 to 2024 was only 1.1%.