Carlos Manuel Rodríguez Arechavaleta, a political science expert and researcher at Mexico's Universidad Iberoamericana with a focus on social movements and Cuba's transition processes, highlights that the Cuban government is purposefully refraining from suppressing the recent protests sparked by the energy crisis. He notes that any open repression could potentially trigger widespread social unrest across multiple provinces.
In a conversation with CiberCuba, Rodríguez outlined five potential scenarios for political transition in the country. The primary scenario involves a reinforced authoritarian continuation, where political and military elites remain united, the state employs selective repression, and minimal economic reforms are carried out.
Despite this scenario being the dominant one so far, its viability is increasingly questionable.
"To sustain this reinforced authoritarian continuity, any reformist momentum must be stifled. The state would need to continue successfully using selective repression and maintain the deterrent effect of severe penalties against internal dissent groups and any form of dissonant expression," Rodríguez stated.
"They have managed to maintain control, but the current situation of extreme deprivation and survival is a powder keg. Direct and indirect expressions of discontent and dissent are becoming more visible daily: posters, announcements, nighttime banging of pots, etc. All these could lead to unforeseen effects and trigger unplanned collective actions, potentially creating significant pressure on the regime," Rodríguez emphasized.
Since March 7, pot-banging protests have erupted in Havana, Ciego de Ávila, Matanzas, and Santiago de Cuba. The power outages have led to demonstrations with slogans like 'Down with the revolution!' and 'This is over!' echoing through the streets.
The catalyst was the collapse of the National Electric System on Tuesday, March 4, when a boiler failure at the Antonio Guiteras Thermoelectric Plant in Matanzas left 80% of the country, about 7 million people, without power—enduring blackouts up to 24 hours daily and up to 51 hours in areas like Mayarí in the east. By March 6, the energy deficit had reached 2,046 MW.
What stands out to the analyst is precisely what didn't happen: the regime did not deploy police against the demonstrators.
"Have you noticed that we've seen numerous protests, true, they are peaceful pot-banging protests due to the blackouts, but there was no repression, no police was sent against the people. This indicates that the cost of repression is rising. A crackdown could ignite a large-scale response across multiple provinces, putting the regime in a precarious position..."
As Cuba's energy crisis deepens, protests have become more frequent. However, the fear of imprisonment curtails further mobilizations despite widespread social discontent, especially since the regime has previously imposed sentences of up to 8 years for protests over blackouts.
The situation is further complicated by the geopolitical context: as the regime faces internal pressure, Trump is reportedly negotiating a secret economic deal with Cuba that would involve the exit of Díaz-Canel, although the Cuban government denies any ongoing negotiations with the United States.
Understanding Cuba's Political Landscape Amid Protests
Why is the Cuban government avoiding direct repression of protests?
The Cuban government is avoiding direct repression to prevent large-scale social unrest that could spread across multiple provinces, which would pose a significant challenge to the regime's stability.
What triggered the recent protests in Cuba?
The protests were triggered by severe power outages due to a failure in the National Electric System, affecting 80% of the country and leaving millions without electricity.
What potential political scenarios are being considered for Cuba?
One scenario involves reinforced authoritarian continuity with selective repression and minimal economic reforms, although its viability is increasingly uncertain.
How has the fear of imprisonment affected the protests?
Despite widespread social discontent, the fear of harsh prison sentences, previously up to 8 years for blackout protests, has deterred further mobilizations.