Cuban-American entrepreneur Carlos Saladrigas, who chairs the Cuba Study Group, has proposed a financial roadmap for Cuba's economic transition, estimating the initial phase will require between $6 billion and $10 billion. According to Saladrigas, this substantial investment should be shouldered primarily by the Cuban diaspora and the United States government, akin to a 'Marshall Plan' for the island.
"A significant portion of this burden will fall on the diaspora, the U.S. government, and through a Marshall Plan for Cuba, which the U.S. is well-positioned to provide," Saladrigas emphasized during an interview. Complementary support could come from the European Community and Latin American nations, albeit on a smaller scale.
Blueprint for Economic Recovery
At 77 years old, Saladrigas has spent over two decades advocating for economic reforms in Cuba. He outlined a three-phase plan to rejuvenate the Cuban economy. The first phase, focused on stabilization, is anticipated to last from two to four years. The subsequent phase, which would improve infrastructure such as ports, roads, and water systems, is expected to take an additional five years. Finally, the third phase envisions Cuba evolving into a Caribbean financial hub, comparable to Singapore or Israel.
Preconditions and Economic Realities
Saladrigas stressed the necessity of lifting U.S. sanctions as a prerequisite for economic growth, stating, "Economic opening is impossible with economic sanctions. The Cuban economy cannot recover under these conditions." He warned that the economic state at the time of transition will heavily influence its success: "The worse the country's economic condition at the time of transition, the more challenging the results will be."
Current Economic Challenges
Cuba is currently facing an unprecedented economic crisis. The country's GDP dropped by 5% in 2025, and the per capita GDP is just $1,082—the lowest in Latin America as per CEPAL. The Cuban peso depreciated by 47.8% against the dollar over the last year, falling from 345 to 510 CUP per dollar. The loss of Venezuelan oil, which accounted for 30% of Cuba's consumption, has further exacerbated the energy crisis. "Cuba lacks oil. The funds needed for transition won't come from beneath the ground," noted Saladrigas.
Focus on Small and Medium Enterprises
The crisis has severely impacted small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with 96.4% at risk due to fuel shortages. These SMEs are central to Saladrigas's plan for stabilization; he believes their growth, fueled by diaspora remittances as seed capital, will drive this phase. He suggests enabling Cubans abroad to invest directly in these businesses, allowing them to be freely bought and sold.
Regarding currency, Saladrigas sees dollarization as a potential avenue, although it may lead to a loss of sovereignty. He proposes obtaining loans from the IMF or the U.S. to support the peso. On property expropriated in the 1960s, he suggests resolving issues through tax credits linked to future investments rather than cash payouts. "Housing is untouchable," he insisted.
Risks of Disorderly Transition
Saladrigas also cautioned about the dangers of a chaotic transition, warning that "if gangsterism infiltrates this process in Cuba, it could corrupt the police and undermine the entire process," referring to the potential involvement of Latin American organized crime and drug trafficking.
His comments come amid ongoing negotiations between the Trump administration and Cuban regime representatives. At the 'Shield of the Americas' Summit in Miami, Trump described Cuba as "desperate" for an agreement and appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to oversee the talks, which involve interactions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro.
Saladrigas, who has long advocated the very strategies now being pursued by Washington, characterized the current approach as "pure pragmatism" and "the only path forward," while expressing regret that Cubans themselves lack direct agency in the process. The Cuban exile community remains divided over these negotiations, highlighting the political complexity of the situation. "I envision a remarkable Cuba, an exceptional financial hub in the Caribbean within 10 to 15 years," he concluded.
Key Questions on Cuba's Economic Transition
What is the estimated cost of the initial phase of Cuba's economic transition?
The initial phase is estimated to cost between $6 billion and $10 billion.
Who is expected to finance this transition?
The Cuban diaspora and the U.S. government are expected to primarily finance the transition, akin to a 'Marshall Plan' for Cuba.
What are the phases of the proposed economic plan for Cuba?
The plan consists of three phases: stabilization, infrastructure development, and becoming a Caribbean financial hub.