Analysts and officials are dubbing the Trump administration's approach to Cuba as "Cubastroika," a plan aimed at spurring economic reforms on the island through pressure and selective access to the U.S. market, according to a report by USA Today.
The term draws a parallel to the Soviet "perestroika," the economic reform process initiated in the Soviet Union during the 1980s that introduced market elements into a communist system. As highlighted in the report, Washington's strategy seeks to trigger a similar transformation in Cuba, but instigated from outside as the island faces a severe economic downturn.
The timing of this strategy is critical. Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3 and the subsequent halt of Venezuelan oil supplies, Cuba has been plunged into an energy crisis that has exacerbated its economic collapse. For instance, Havana has experienced power outages lasting up to 15 hours a day, flights have been canceled due to fuel shortages, hotels have closed, and many private businesses have been forced to cease operations.
USA Today references entrepreneur Aldo Álvarez, founder of delivery company Mercatoria, whose vehicles were immobilized for weeks due to a lack of fuel. The situation began to shift when gas stations started receiving diesel allocated directly to the private sector, a practice unseen for over sixty years.
This change follows a decision announced by the Trump administration on February 25: allowing U.S. petroleum products to be sold directly to Cuban private businesses, effectively bypassing the trade embargo established in 1960. Washington's aim is to empower independent entrepreneurs and make them pivotal players in the island's economy.
"It's transformative," Álvarez told USA Today. "I can ensure a stable fuel supply... It's undeniably good news."
The report indicates this policy marks a significant departure from decades of U.S. strategy primarily focused on economic isolation. Rather than seeking the immediate collapse of the system, the White House appears to be fostering a gradual dependency of the Cuban economy on the United States.
Ric Herrero, executive director of the analysis group Cuba Study Group, explained to the media that the U.S. government is acknowledging the Cuban private sector as a strategic ally for mitigating the humanitarian crisis and promoting internal change for the first time.
Trump himself has hinted at the broader political implications of the strategy. In late February, he suggested to reporters that a "friendly takeover" of Cuba could occur, and during the Shield of the Americas summit on March 7, he stated the Caribbean country is "in its last moment of life as it has been."
U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have engaged with Cuban representatives while insisting that the current model must change. "The status quo is unacceptable... Cuba needs to change, and change dramatically," Rubio told the press in February.
Internally, the situation in Cuba seems to be pushing toward adjustments. During a recent meeting in Havana, leader Miguel Díaz-Canel discussed the need for "the most urgent transformations" in the economic model, including more business autonomy and cooperation between the state and the private sector, as reported by the official newspaper Granma.
Experts cited by USA Today believe the combination of external pressure, energy crisis, and economic decline could compel the regime to embrace reforms it has long resisted.
Currently, Cuba is home to approximately 11,000 small and medium-sized private enterprises, many located in Havana and involved in services like restaurants, transportation, or home deliveries. Washington's strategy seems to bet on this emerging sector as the engine for a gradual economic transformation.
For some experts, the situation represents a pivotal moment for the island. Robert Muse, a lawyer specializing in U.S.-Cuba business, told the media there is a growing sense that "this is the year of decision for Cuba."
Meanwhile, amid prolonged blackouts and widespread shortages, many Cuban entrepreneurs are cautiously observing the new landscape, aware that any economic opening could redefine the country's future.
Key Questions on Trump's "Cubastroika" and Economic Reform in Cuba
What is "Cubastroika" and how does it relate to Cuba?
"Cubastroika" is a term used to describe the Trump administration's strategy to encourage economic reforms in Cuba through external pressure and selective market access, drawing a parallel to the Soviet perestroika.
How does the U.S. plan to support Cuban private businesses?
The U.S. has decided to allow American petroleum products to be sold directly to Cuban private businesses, aiming to strengthen independent entrepreneurs and integrate them into the island's economy.
What are the potential impacts of the U.S. strategy on Cuba's economy?
The strategy could lead to a gradual economic dependency on the U.S. and may compel the Cuban regime to adopt reforms it has long avoided, potentially transforming the island's economic landscape.