Amidst discreet talks between the Trump administration and key Cuban power brokers, an unexpected development is emerging: the potential ousting of Miguel Díaz-Canel as the leading figure of Cuba's communist regime.
Reported by the Miami Herald, the U.S. government views the current Cuban leader as a potential hindrance to the economic and political reforms Washington aims to promote as part of broader negotiations with Havana.
A source informed the newspaper that this assessment has been communicated to Cuban officials through unofficial channels.
Initially appointed by Raúl Castro as president in 2018 and later as the first secretary of the Communist Party in 2021, Díaz-Canel finds himself sidelined in dialogues between advisors to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Raúl Castro's grandson and a close collaborator known as "El Cangrejo."
The latest meeting occurred last week in Saint Kitts during the CARICOM annual summit.
Rodríguez Castro plays a crucial role, being part of the retired general's inner circle and involved in managing GAESA, the military conglomerate that controls approximately 70% of Cuba's dollarized economy, including strategic ports like Mariel, hotel chains, and fuel stations.
His significant role in these discussions underscores the perception that true power in Cuba remains concentrated within the Castro family and the military forces.
The Trump administration has ramped up pressure on the regime. Following the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military operation in early January, Washington halted critical oil supplies to the Island.
President Trump has repeatedly labeled Cuba a "failed nation," emphasizing the necessity for an agreement to prevent a complete collapse.
Rubio, on the other hand, has stated that while the U.S. doesn't expect immediate transformations, it does anticipate "dramatic changes" in the centralized economic model.
Sources cited by the Herald suggested discussions have involved the potential for a gradual easing of sanctions in exchange for structural reforms.
In this scenario, Díaz-Canel is perceived as too ideologically rigid and lacking the actual power required to ensure compliance with any agreement.
His potential removal would test how far the ruling elite is willing to go to avoid more drastic scenarios, including heightened international pressure or even military actions.
However, such a move would not be simple. Díaz-Canel not only holds the presidency but also leads the Communist Party, the symbolic foundation of the system. Analysts consulted by the Herald warn that removing him would entail profound change necessitating mutual assurances in comprehensive negotiations.
For many Cubans, his departure wouldn't come as a surprise. His administration suffers from significant unpopularity, particularly following the July 11, 2021 protests, where he publicly urged regime supporters to confront demonstrators "by all necessary means."
Hundreds of those arrested that day remain imprisoned, part of an estimated thousand political prisoners in the country.
During his tenure, Cuba has witnessed its largest exodus in history, with nearly three million people leaving the Island since 2020. The economic crisis, chronic shortages, and persistent blackouts have further eroded the credibility of the so-called "continuity" government.
Although Díaz-Canel has repeatedly emphasized the need for "urgent transformations" of the economic model, independent economists view the announced measures, such as increased autonomy for state enterprises or local governments, as insufficient.
Experts note that sacrificing Díaz-Canel could serve as a political gesture towards Washington but wouldn't necessarily alter the true power dynamics, which remain in the hands of the military leadership and Raúl Castro's circle.
Even so, in authoritarian systems, symbols hold weight, and a leadership change would send a strong signal to both the international community and the Cuban populace.
As expectations for regime change grow, there remains a possibility that Díaz-Canel might once again withstand both internal and external pressures.
Ultimately, his survival or downfall hinges on the decisions of the core group controlling the country and the extent to which they are willing to negotiate Cuba's future in an increasingly plausible transitional scenario.
Cuba's Political Landscape and Potential Changes
Why is Díaz-Canel considered an obstacle by the U.S.?
The U.S. views Díaz-Canel as an obstacle because his ideological rigidity and lack of real power may hinder economic and political reforms sought by Washington.
What role does Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro play in the negotiations?
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro is a key figure in the discussions due to his close ties with Raúl Castro and involvement in GAESA, which controls a significant portion of Cuba's economy.
How has Trump's administration increased pressure on Cuba?
The Trump administration has increased pressure by capturing Nicolás Maduro and cutting key oil supplies to Cuba, labeling it a "failed nation" requiring a preventative agreement.