Amidst Cuba's widespread crisis, exacerbated by the policies of the Trump administration, Cuban historian Rafael Rojas has asserted that the government led by Miguel Díaz-Canel has the potential to remain in power—and possibly strengthen its position—if it revives reform initiatives and engages in realistic negotiations with the United States.
In an interview with the Chilean newspaper La Tercera and following the publication of his column "Cuba: The Reverse of the Plot" in El País, Rojas argued that the government's longevity isn't necessarily threatened by the extraordinary pressure stemming from the energy blockade.
The Impact of U.S. Policies on Cuba
Currently based in Mexico, the essayist discusses the present crisis in the context of the executive order signed by Trump on January 29, which heightened energy and financial restrictions on the island. Rojas's article explains how recent measures taken by Havana—such as the reduction of public transportation, closures or adjustments in universities, suspension of events, airline cancellations, and relocating tourists to different hotels—mirror the "Zero Option" strategy conceived during the "Special Period in Times of Peace" in the 1990s.
Rojas describes the nation's turmoil as a "foreseen collapse" that cannot be solely attributed to American pressure. He argues that the regime's self-victimization results from a "denial of history" and questions the notion that both the Revolution and the U.S. Embargo have remained unchanged since 1959 and 1962, respectively.
Internal and External Factors Affecting Cuba
Despite the critical situation, Rojas notes, "the collapse is not complete," as Cuba still maintains a self-sufficiency rate of 40% in energy. However, he warns that today's circumstances are more severe than those following the Soviet Union's collapse, as "Cuba is now more unproductive than it was back then."
Regarding international support, Rojas mentions that China and Russia have retreated from the Greater Caribbean since last summer, providing only diplomatic backing without breaking the energy blockade on the island. In this context, he believes the U.S. might tolerate a degree of continuity in the Cuban system if agreements involving energy supply, investment, and credit are reached, alongside political concessions such as amnesty.
The Role of Political Prisoners and Repression
While the release of all political prisoners is a demand gaining momentum among Cuban civil society both domestically and abroad, the regime shows no indication of considering it. Instead, it has intensified the suppression of dissenting voices.
Rojas cautions that the coming weeks will be critical, with the outcome hinging on the Cuban government's ability to manage the crisis without triggering a social uprising. He suggests that prolonging the state's collapse might serve as a political survival strategy if essential services can be maintained while seeking intermittent supply solutions.
His analysis follows a report by El País highlighting the unprecedented deterioration of daily life in Cuba, describing the economic collapse, scarcity, and political repression. The international media is once again focusing on the island due to the latest crisis, after years of neglecting the ongoing catastrophe.
In this setting, Rojas offers a nuanced assessment: despite the severity of the crisis, the continuity of power in Havana is not off the table and ultimately depends on internal political decisions and the nature of negotiations with Washington.
Amid rumors of potential dialogues between Washington and Havana, U.S. sources claim such talks are happening, while the Cuban government denies them. It has recently come to light that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has conducted secret discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson and trusted confidant of the nonagenarian dictator Raúl Castro.
Rafael Rojas, holding a degree in Philosophy from the University of Havana and a doctorate in history from El Colegio de México, specializes in the intellectual, political, and diplomatic history of Latin America in the 19th and 20th centuries. He is a full member of the Mexican Academy of History and the author of books such as "A Brief History of the Cuban Revolution" (2015) and "A Short History of Censorship and Other Essays on Art and Power in Cuba" (2023).
Key Factors in U.S.-Cuba Negotiations
What are the primary challenges facing the Cuban government?
The Cuban government faces a multi-faceted crisis involving severe economic collapse, energy shortages, international isolation, and increasing political repression.
What role could U.S. negotiations play in Cuba's future?
Negotiations with the U.S. could potentially open pathways for energy supply agreements, investment, and credit, while also involving political concessions that could stabilize the Cuban regime.