In the years before 1959, Cuba's robust sugar industry and various manufactured goods provided the nation with a steady influx of foreign currency, allowing it to fully fund its oil imports. The trade balance was positive, and the Cuban peso was on par with the U.S. dollar.
Today, the situation is starkly different. The crisis in Cuba cannot be attributed solely to temporary shortages, sanctions, or poor management. The core issue is more profound and structural: the numbers just don't add up.
The minimum annual oil bill for Cuba—ranging from $2.5 to $3 billion—far exceeds what its economy generates in real dollars. Without subsidies from the Soviet Union, Venezuela, or another external benefactor, the Cuban economic model is unsustainable by any arithmetic measure. This is not a political opinion but a conclusion drawn from cross-referencing public data on energy consumption, international oil prices, and GDP at market exchange rates. The figures leave no room for alternative interpretation.
How Much Oil Does Cuba Require?
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and TheGlobalEconomy, accessed via IndexMundi, document Cuba's total oil consumption since 1980. The most recent official figure was 178,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2014, equating to 65 million barrels annually. However, no continuous official data series exists beyond that year.
With the Cuban economy contracting by 11% between 2020 and 2024 (sources: Infobae, July 2025; SWI/EFE), electricity generation plunged from 20.7 TWh in 2019 to 15.3 TWh in 2023 (source: Low Carbon Power). Adjusting historical consumption to reflect this downturn suggests that the current minimum energy need is about 110-120 kbd, equivalent to 40-45 million barrels annually. This is merely what is needed to avoid systemic collapse in electricity and transportation.
Cuba's Insufficient Oil Production
Cuba's domestic crude production has been in decline for a decade, standing at about 32,000 bpd in 2024 (sources: Statbase; Worldometer), translating to just 11.7 million barrels annually. This leaves a deficit of 28-33 million barrels per year that must be imported.
When considering market prices for 2025-2026 (Brent crude at approximately $60-70 per barrel; source: EIA STEO; Trading Economics), plus a freight cost of $2-4 per barrel due to Caribbean risk premiums and logistics (source: Argus Marine Fuels), the import bill is significant.
Comparisons with Regional Economies
In similar Caribbean and Central American economies, energy costs constitute between 5% and 10% of GDP. In stark contrast, Cuba's energy expenses, when measured at the real exchange rate, exceed 200% of GDP.
The crucial difference for Cuba is not in per capita consumption—which is modest—but in the fact that 60-70% of its oil is consumed for electricity generation due to a fossil fuel-heavy energy mix (>95%). Unlike Panama and Ecuador, which allocate only 10-25% of their oil for electricity thanks to hydropower, Cuba's lack of barrels leads to widespread blackouts, as experienced in February 2026 with 9+ hour outages in Havana and limited electricity in provinces (sources: Bloomberg; Al Jazeera).
The Illusion of Oil Reexportation
For over two decades, the Cuban regime's financial survival depended on an often-overlooked mechanism: the reexportation of subsidized oil from its patrons.
During the Soviet era (1977-1989), Cuba received approximately 260,000 bpd from the USSR while domestic consumption was only around 200,000 bpd. The surplus of about 60,000 bpd (roughly 22 million barrels annually) was sold in Western Europe at market prices, generating substantial convertible currency.
The Venezuelan era (2000-2015) saw Venezuela replacing the USSR, sending up to 105,000 bpd at its peak in 2012. The Cienfuegos refinery was reactivated as a joint venture to refine Venezuelan crude and resell derivatives in the Caribbean, with net subsidies averaging 45% of shipment value.
The Inescapable Reality of Economic Reform
If subsidies, soft loans, and debt defaults were removed, forcing Cuba to operate under market rules, the arithmetic becomes devastating.
The regime's unwillingness to generate its own resources to fund energy costs has led to a crisis every time a patron is lost. The only sustainable solution involves systemic changes that include currency unification, market liberalization, and international financial access. However, current political conditions make these reforms impossible.
Immediate Future: Collapse or Change?
By February 2026, Cuba's oil reserves can last only 15-20 days (sources: OilPrice / Kpler). A 50% reduction in island-wide nighttime lighting, as detected by satellite, has been reported (source: Bloomberg). The government has implemented a four-day workweek and halted jet fuel supply, canceling international flights (source: TIME). The exchange rate has surpassed 500 CUP per USD.
Without a new oil patron—Venezuela is in collapse, Mexico has reduced shipments by 73%, and Russia offers marginal support—the Cuban regime faces a historical crossroads. It can continue seeking subsidies and repressing dissent, or it can embrace market reforms, necessitating a relinquishment of political control.
The historical pattern indicates a preference for the former, but the numbers are unforgiving: without at least $2.5 billion annually in subsidized or financed energy, Cuba cannot sustain its electrical grid. And there are no willing patrons left.
Cuba's Energy Crisis: Frequently Asked Questions
Why can't Cuba finance its oil imports?
Cuba's economy does not generate enough foreign exchange to cover its oil import costs, relying instead on subsidies from countries like the USSR and Venezuela in the past. Without these, the economic model is unsustainable.
What changes are necessary for Cuba to sustain its energy needs?
Cuba needs systemic reforms including currency unification, market liberalization, and access to international financing. Political conditions currently prevent these necessary changes from occurring.
How does Cuba's energy consumption compare to other countries?
Cuba's energy costs, as a percentage of GDP, are significantly higher than comparable Caribbean and Central American countries, mainly due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation.