The energy crisis gripping Cuba is nearing a breaking point, according to a distinguished expert. This stark warning comes from Jorge Piñón, a researcher at the University of Texas at Austin's Energy Institute. With three decades of experience with major oil companies like Shell, Amoco Oil, and BP, his insights carry significant weight.
"The situation in Cuba is incredibly dire," Piñón stated bluntly in a recent interview with the Spanish newspaper El País. His conclusions are drawn from concrete data, meticulous tracking of shipments, and extensive study of Cuba's energy sector.
Piñón (born in Cárdenas, 79 years old) has been closely observing the latest hydrocarbon shipments arriving on the island. The most recent was the Ocean Mariner, which delivered 85,000 barrels of crude oil from Mexico and docked in Havana on January 9. Since then, no significant shipments have arrived.
The Impact of U.S. Policies
According to Piñón, former President Donald Trump's threats to impose sanctions on countries supplying oil to Cuba had an immediate effect: shipments ceased, laying bare the island's structural vulnerabilities. "If we don't see a tanker approaching by mid-March, Cuba will have hit 'zero hour,'" he warned. He further noted that Cuba has never had strategic reserves and lacks the capacity to store them.
Structural Deficit Looms
Cuba's daily requirement for oil to maintain essential services, including electricity and fuel, is approximately 100,000 barrels. However, domestic production only accounts for about 40,000 barrels. In recent years, the country has relied heavily on shipments from Venezuela, Mexico, and Russia. The U.S. intervention in Caracas on January 3 accelerated the closure of these supply routes, leaving Cuba with minimal options.
Mexico played a pivotal role, sending about 17,200 barrels of crude daily to Cuba. Notably, this included high-quality Olmeca and Istmo crude, rather than the heavier Maya crude, which Cuban refineries cannot process due to outdated technology. Without these lighter supplies, Cuba faces immediate difficulties in electricity generation and fuel availability.
Widespread Consequences
The situation is not merely theoretical. Piñón highlights that "60% of the country's thermoelectric plants are not operational," primarily due to fuel shortages and lack of maintenance. This scarcity affects not only transportation but also critical electricity generation needed for pumping and distributing potable water. In a nation where prolonged blackouts are already common, a total fuel shortage exacerbates the ongoing social crisis.
"Unfortunately, Cuba's electrical system cannot be resolved quickly. It will take years," Piñón explained, noting efforts to increase renewable energy, particularly solar power, are underway. However, these initiatives remain small-scale and insufficient to overhaul the country's energy infrastructure.
A Long-standing Dependency
For Piñón, the current predicament is not solely the result of recent sanctions but a consequence of historical dependence on ideologically aligned oil-producing allies. "From 2007 to 2015, under Chávez, Cuba was receiving nearly 100,000 barrels daily," he recalled. Previously, it was the Soviet Union, then Venezuela. As these supports dwindled, the fragility of Cuba's model became apparent.
The researcher argues that the Cuban government missed opportunities to reform its economic and energy structures. "Cuba has resisted moving away from its centralized economic model, a relic from the Stalin era. Apart from North Korea, I don't know of another country with such a closed and poorly managed system," he asserted.
The Urgent Need for Change
Having left Cuba at 14 during Operation Peter Pan, Piñón has built his career in the U.S. but has visited the island multiple times. He watches with concern as the energy system deteriorates and the social impact escalates. Describing the situation as "distressing," he warns that conditions in Cuba will worsen unless change occurs. "Something has to give," he urged, emphasizing the need for political dialogue between Havana and Washington.
He added, "The current situation is tough for everyone, whether they are Cubans on the island or abroad." Without a fuel shipment soon, the nation might face not only more severe power outages but also a near-total halt of essential services. As per the expert, Cuba's energy "zero hour" is looming.
Understanding Cuba's Energy Crisis
What is causing the energy crisis in Cuba?
The energy crisis in Cuba is primarily due to a shortage of oil imports, which have been exacerbated by sanctions and geopolitical tensions. The country's outdated infrastructure and lack of strategic reserves further complicate the situation.
How does the fuel shortage affect daily life in Cuba?
Fuel shortages in Cuba lead to significant disruptions in electricity generation, public transportation, and water distribution, severely impacting daily life and exacerbating social challenges.
What role has the U.S. played in Cuba's current energy situation?
U.S. policies, particularly sanctions, have deterred countries from supplying oil to Cuba, significantly contributing to the current energy crisis by disrupting traditional supply routes.