Cuban economist Emilio Morales, vice president of the think tank Cuba Siglo 21, has expressed his belief that the Cuban regime is nearing its end, even suggesting a timeline for its collapse.
In an interview with CubaNet, Morales stated, "I don't think it will last until summer," further asserting, "We are in the final stage of the regime."
These statements come amid an escalating crisis on the island, following the government's announcement of a "contingency plan" due to a severe fuel shortage.
The plan involves cuts across various production sectors, partial service shutdowns, and increased restrictions for the population.
Nation at a Standstill
Morales provides a harsh critique of the economic and structural conditions in Cuba. He explains that the country is facing an "energy matrix collapse," deterioration of the healthcare system, a transportation breakdown, and a halt in production.
"A country in the dark cannot produce, let alone export. Consequently, it cannot generate income. The economy is bankrupt. The nation is essentially at a standstill," he argued.
Recent reports indicate that ATMs are out of cash, fuel sales are restricted, medical services are limited, and international flights are being canceled due to a lack of aviation fuel.
The energy crisis has even impacted tourism, one of the few sectors still bringing in foreign currency.
Morales noted that the company Kpler estimated in early February that Cuba had only 15 to 20 days of oil reserves for consumption and electricity generation.
He believes the government's options are extremely limited. "Tourism has just collapsed," he pointed out, mentioning that several airlines have suspended flights to the island, and the main Canadian airline announced it would not fly to Cuba until May. Canada is the largest source of tourists to the country.
Health Crisis and Social Erosion
Adding an epidemiological layer to his analysis, Morales described the health situation as disastrous, with over nine viruses circulating.
Beyond economic and health indicators, Morales argues that the regime has lost a key element that upheld its control for decades: the ability to control information and shape public perception.
"The Cuban population is now entirely dissident," he stated.
The people have stopped consuming official media and are now turning to independent sources for information.
"The Communist Party of Cuba's hegemonic narrative over the people is over. They've lost that battle. Consequently, the Cuban government is now at a significant disadvantage," he asserted.
This erosion is not only social but also ideological and institutional.
"This has also led the PCC to lose its ideological grip on the population and its ability to mobilize. This fracture is also evident within the Armed Forces themselves," he indicated.
Unpayable Debt and Foreign Isolation
Internationally, Morales highlights the burden of an external debt, estimated at $46 billion, which he believes "they will not pay because they cannot pay."
He also notes that Havana has lost political influence in Latin America, with the fall of several leftist governments and the rise of administrations less aligned with Castroism.
This is compounded by a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy, which has become much tougher on authoritarian regimes in the hemisphere.
According to Morales, the Cuban government lacks leverage in negotiations and its options "are scarce."
"What does the Cuban government have to offer in a negotiation? Absolutely nothing. The only thing they can offer is for the Castro family to leave the country and allow a transition. That is the only possible scenario at this time."
Morales also mentions pending legal processes in the United States against figures linked to Cuban power, and recent statements by former Venezuelan intelligence chief Hugo "El Pollo" Carvajal, who claimed that the strategy to flood the U.S. with drugs was devised in Havana.
GAESA and Economic Power Struggles
A particularly sensitive area of Morales's analysis is the GAESA conglomerate, which controls vast segments of the Cuban economy and, according to Morales, "has plundered all the country's wealth."
He added that while it is officially owned by the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR), it effectively operates as "a family conglomerate controlled by the Castro family and a few oligarchs close to them."
Morales suggests that not all military leaders are involved in the corruption associated with the business group, which—according to his view—could lead to a different scenario if protests similar to those of July 11, 2021, arise.
"The conditions are set," he emphasized. "It is highly probable that the government will fall. Something extraordinary would have to happen for it not to."
Is There a Lifeline for Havana?
Regarding the possibility of Mexico resuming oil shipments to Cuba despite U.S. sanctions, Morales expressed skepticism.
He also dismissed the idea of a bailout from Russia or China, recalling that Russian businessmen attempted to push for legal reforms to invest in Cuba, but the government refused to implement structural changes.
"The Russians have already given up on the Cuban issue," he noted.
Concerning reports in the Spanish press about alleged negotiations between Alejandro Castro Espín and U.S. agents, Morales cast doubt on the specific version but acknowledged that contacts do exist.
"What I can tell you is that, yes, negotiations are happening. Who is negotiating? I don't know. That's not the point right now... but it is a signal that goes against the rhetoric of President Díaz-Canel," he stated.
"I don't think it will last until summer; a miracle would have to occur, and with them, there are no miracles," he said of the regime.
In his view, the combination of energy collapse, economic bankruptcy, loss of external support, ideological erosion, and internal fractures creates a critical situation.
"It could happen before or during the summer, but what I am sure of is that it will happen this year," he concluded.
Morales's words are not an isolated prediction but reflect a growing perception both inside and outside the island: that the Cuban model is facing a profound structural crisis, whose outcome could mark a historic turning point.
Frequently Asked Questions About Cuba's Political and Economic Crisis
What is the current state of Cuba's economy?
Cuba's economy is in a severe state of collapse, facing an energy crisis, production standstill, and bankruptcy, with limited options for recovery.
How is the energy crisis affecting Cuba?
The energy crisis in Cuba has led to fuel shortages, restricted services, and a significant impact on tourism, further crippling the economy.
What role does GAESA play in the Cuban economy?
GAESA is a powerful conglomerate controlling significant portions of Cuba's economy, often criticized for its role in economic exploitation and corruption.
Is there any international support for Cuba?
Cuba's international support is waning, with diminished influence in Latin America and no substantial aid expected from Russia or China.