This Wednesday morning, February 11, the informal currency market in Cuba shows a notable change: the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) has slightly dropped, shifting from 410 to 408 CUP.
Although the decline is moderate, it holds symbolic significance amidst a growing distrust of this currency, which is used in state-run stores and is increasingly being avoided by consumers.
In contrast, the U.S. dollar remains at its record high of 500 CUP, a milestone reached the previous day.
Similarly, the euro is stable, valued at 555 CUP, according to the informal market representative rate index (TRMi) compiled by the independent outlet elTOQUE.
Current Exchange Rates in Cuba
As of 7:15 a.m. on February 11, 2026, in Cuba, the exchange rates according to elTOQUE are as follows:
- USD to CUP: 500 CUP
- EUR to CUP: 555 CUP
- MLC to CUP: 408 CUP
The Dollar's Milestone: 500 CUP and Crisis Context
On February 10, at 1:38 p.m. (Cuban time), the dollar surpassed the symbolic barrier of 500 Cuban pesos for the first time.
This figure marks a new chapter in the ongoing depreciation of the Cuban peso, a direct reflection of a structural exchange crisis amid energy collapse, currency shortages, and the absence of effective state containment mechanisms.
"The new level confirms the sustained trend of the Cuban peso’s depreciation and marks a new chapter in the exchange crisis facing the island," elTOQUE emphasizes, noting that this is not speculative but rather the result of real and persistent economic forces.
Market Projections and an “Unusual Calm”
According to the Observatory of Currencies and Finances of Cuba (OMFi), the market's behavior in the initial weeks of the year has been relatively stable, despite the adverse macroeconomic environment.
Their models had already forecasted the dollar exceeding the 500 CUP threshold in February, with a central value projected at 530 CUP and an estimated range between 475 and 590 CUP.
However, there has not been a sudden surge in demand. OMFi points to an "unusual calm" in the informal market, driven by a combination of factors: the contraction of tourism—a key currency source—the production paralysis, reduced international flights, and the logistical difficulties faced by micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in importing goods.
Energy Crisis: An Inflationary Catalyst
The energy crisis, exacerbated by disruptions in fuel shipments from Venezuela and Mexico, has had a multiplying effect on the economy.
With production nearly halted, transportation collapsed, and increasing difficulties in importing goods, the market has contracted significantly.
"The consequences are felt throughout the economy: production interruptions, transportation breakdowns, logistical challenges for imports, and a deepening shortage of basic goods," elTOQUE details.
In this scenario, the reduced supply acts as a powerful inflationary driver. The rising cost of basic products and the erosion of purchasing power in CUP perpetuates a vicious cycle where the relative demand for currencies persists, even amid an apparent lull.
Recent Evolution: From the 400 Threshold to the Current Record
The closest precedent occurred in August 2025, when the dollar reached 400 CUP for the first time.
What was then considered a psychological ceiling eventually consolidated and normalized. From that point to February 2026, the TRMI has shown a consistent trend towards new historical highs, with no clear signs of reversal.
OMFi initially interpreted these jumps not as speculative bubbles, but as the result of profound structural imbalances: GDP decline, tourism collapse, partial dollarization, and international reserve crises.
The Official Market: Persistent Discrepancy and Limited Intervention Capability
Despite the accelerated evolution of the informal market, the official exchange rate of Segment III has not adjusted to reality.
The latest update shows a gap of 36 CUP compared to the informal market, reinforcing the latter as the reference for citizens and MSMEs.
Since its inception in December 2025, Segment III has recorded an upward "floatation," yet it remains unable to keep pace with the informal dollar.
The lack of liquid reserves and credible monetary instruments severely undermines the state's ability to compete in foreign currency acquisition.
Social Impact: Increasing Inequality and Precarity
The depreciation of the peso and the consequent inflation directly impact Cuban households. Sectors relying on CUP incomes see their purchasing power drastically reduced.
Meanwhile, those receiving remittances in foreign currencies maintain differentiated access to essential goods, deepening social divides.
"The dollar crossing above 500 CUP is not an endpoint," OMFi warns, but rather a symptom of an economic system in crisis, requiring profound structural reforms and a credible macroeconomic stabilization strategy.
Currency Equivalence: USD and EUR to CUP
USD to CUP Equivalence:
- 1 USD = 500 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,500 CUP
- 10 USD = 5,000 CUP
- 20 USD = 10,000 CUP
- 50 USD = 25,000 CUP
- 100 USD = 50,000 CUP
EUR to CUP Equivalence:
- 1 EUR = 555 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,775 CUP
- 10 EUR = 5,550 CUP
- 20 EUR = 11,100 CUP
- 50 EUR = 27,750 CUP
- 100 EUR = 55,500 CUP
- 200 EUR = 111,000 CUP
Understanding Cuba's Currency Crisis
What led to the recent rise in the dollar's value against the Cuban peso?
The rise is attributed to a structural exchange crisis, compounded by energy shortages, currency scarcity, and ineffective state mechanisms.
Why is the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) losing value?
The MLC is losing value due to increasing consumer distrust and its limited usefulness in state-run stores.
How does the currency crisis affect Cuban households?
The currency crisis impacts households by reducing the purchasing power of those earning in CUP, while those receiving foreign remittances have better access to goods, increasing social inequality.