The US dollar has surpassed the 500 Cuban peso mark in the informal market for the first time, highlighting the ongoing depreciation of the peso and exacerbating the exchange crisis on the island.
This milestone was recorded by the representative rate of the informal market compiled by the independent outlet elTOQUE, which provides real-time monitoring of currency behavior outside the official market.
"On February 10, 2026, at 1:38 p.m. (Cuban time), the US dollar breached the symbolic threshold of 500 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the informal market," emphasized the independent platform.
Although the currency exceeded 500 CUP during the day, by the time of reporting, the dollar was trading at 499.50 Cuban pesos, reflecting the volatile nature of the informal market where values can fluctuate within hours.
Economic Instability Intensifies
The record-breaking figure comes amidst an energy collapse, currency shortages, and profound structural imbalances in the Cuban economy, directly affecting production, transportation, and the supply of basic goods.
Furthermore, the crossing of the 500-peso threshold is not seen as an isolated incident but rather part of a consistent downward trajectory for the Cuban peso in the absence of structural reforms and a credible macroeconomic stabilization plan.
"The crossing of the 500 CUP threshold is not a speculative episode," noted the report, highlighting that "the behavior of the informal market in the early weeks of the year has been relatively moderate, despite the dire macroeconomic scenario."
Predictions and Reactions
elTOQUE further stressed that "the forecast models of the observatory had already predicted that the dollar would surpass this barrier in February, with a central estimated value of 530 CUP per 1 USD, although within a wide range of uncertainty from 475 to 590 CUP."
To illustrate this fluctuation, at 9:28 a.m. in Cuba, the exchange rate of the dollar published by elTOQUE placed the US currency at 495 Cuban pesos.
In 2025, many Cubans anticipated that the dollar's price would skyrocket in the informal market and reach 500 Cuban pesos (CUP) before the year's end. However, this anticipated line was crossed months later.
Understanding the Cuban Peso Depreciation
What factors contributed to the US dollar exceeding 500 Cuban pesos?
The US dollar's rise past 500 Cuban pesos is attributed to the sustained depreciation of the Cuban peso, energy collapse, currency shortages, and structural imbalances in the Cuban economy.
Why is the informal market significant in Cuba's currency exchange?
The informal market is significant because it reflects real-time currency values outside government control, offering a more accurate picture of the economic situation and currency demands on the island.