Cuban Leader Díaz-Canel Rejects Claims of Regime's Collapse: "It's Not a Failed State, It's Resilience"

In a televised address on February 5th, Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel dismissed the notion that Cuba is experiencing a collapse or has become a failed state. The broadcast, shared across the Presidency's social media platforms, aimed to counter recent remarks by Donald Trump, who labeled the island as a "failed state" and a "failed nation."

Without directly referencing Trump, Díaz-Canel, who also serves as the first secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), attributed such narratives to an "imperial philosophy" propagated by the United States government. He argued that the collapse is more ideological than actual, shaped by a political and media offensive from the U.S.

"The theory of collapse and the insistence on it are deeply tied to the concept of a failed state, something the U.S. government has used to characterize the Cuban situation," Díaz-Canel stated. He emphasized that the supposed collapse is "in the imperial mindset, not in the minds of Cubans."

The Reality of Resilience vs. Operational Collapse

Díaz-Canel claimed that Cuba withstands "maximum pressure from the world's leading power," referencing the embargo and sanctions. He cited Trump's own words, asserting that all possible pressure had been applied to Cuba, as evidence of the island's resilience against suffocation attempts.

However, the stark contrast between Díaz-Canel's rhetoric and the everyday reality in Cuba is evident. Provinces experience blackouts exceeding 18 hours a day, public transportation is sporadic, inflation depletes wages, hospitals lack medications, and a massive exodus of over 600,000 Cubans has been recorded since 2022, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, with other sources citing over a million leaving the island.

State Control vs. Functional Capacity

Despite maintaining political control, analysts argue that the Cuban state's authority does not equate to functionality. A state can retain its coercive powers—such as police, courts, and armed forces—while failing to provide basic security and public services. This is the essence of what Trump and other international observers mean by a failed state: not an absence of government but a loss of operational capacity, a fitting description of contemporary Cuba.

As Díaz-Canel speaks of "economic suffocation," Cuba faces an energy, fiscal, and administrative collapse that cannot be solely blamed on sanctions. The military-corporate conglomerate GAESA controls most of the foreign currency economy with complete opacity, while agricultural and manufacturing production hit historic lows, and public services operate in a state of constant emergency.

Between Rhetoric and Reality

In his address, Díaz-Canel invoked a "conviction of victory" and collective effort to overcome challenges. Yet, his words come amid rising social distrust and delegitimization of the one-party state. The gap between the triumphant rhetoric and everyday experience fuels a perception of decay that censorship and propaganda cannot suppress.

Social media reactions were swift; many users responded to the official message with sarcasm or outrage, highlighting power outages, food shortages, and the mass departure of young people. One user on X remarked, "If this isn't collapse, what do you call living without light, transportation, and a future?"

While the regime's latest defense continues to focus on heroic resistance against an external enemy, it avoids addressing internal functional failures. Although Cuba hasn't institutionally collapsed, it endures a growing paralysis where political control replaces effective governance. Denying this reality doesn't alter the facts. The island isn't, as Díaz-Canel suggests, a victim of "imperial philosophy," but rather of its own systemic inertia—a state clinging to totalitarian power while failing its society.