This Saturday, Cuba's informal currency market witnessed new increases in major foreign currencies, reinforcing that the pressure on the Cuban peso is not an isolated incident but the culmination of a trend that developed over the week.
According to data from the independent observatory elTOQUE, the U.S. dollar (USD) climbed to 495 Cuban pesos (CUP) today, marking a five-peso increase from the previous day.
The euro (EUR), meanwhile, soared to 550 CUP, also experiencing a five-peso rise, while the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) declined to 400 CUP, reflecting a decrease of five pesos compared to the day before.
Informal Exchange Rates in Cuba: Saturday, February 7, 2026 - 06:00
USD to CUP exchange rate: 495 CUP
EUR to CUP exchange rate: 550 CUP
MLC to CUP exchange rate: 400 CUP
The activity observed this Saturday disrupts the stability the dollar had shown for several days and confirms the euro as the strongest and most dynamic currency in the informal market, widening its lead over other currencies.
However, this is not a sudden or unexpected leap but rather the peak of a gradual ascent.
Throughout the past week, market behavior was predominantly steady, with staggered advancements and intermittent pauses. For instance, the dollar began the period at 485 CUP at the end of January, increased to 490 CUP in early February, and maintained that level for several consecutive days.
This stability did not indicate the strength of the peso but rather a temporary balance between supply and demand, or a pause in expectations, which was finally broken today with the new rise to 495 CUP.
The euro followed a somewhat different but equally telling trajectory. At the end of January, it was valued at 530 CUP and made a more pronounced jump at the start of the week, rising to 540 CUP.
After a brief correction, it stabilized and then resumed its upward path, first to 545 CUP and finally to the current 550 CUP. Overall, the European currency gained 20 pesos in seven days, solidifying its position as the main value reference in Cuba's informal market.
This pattern indicates that the market didn't react impulsively but adjusted prices as negative signals accumulated.
Energy crises, persistent inflation, and an increasingly uncertain political climate have driven economic players to anticipate changes, gradually raising quotes before deterioration fully impacts daily life.
In contrast, the MLC followed a different logic. After rising to 405 CUP the previous day, it fell back to 400 CUP today, showing erratic behavior. Unlike the dollar and euro, its value is conditioned by restricted use in state-run stores and the loss of appeal compared to physical currencies, which offer greater flexibility and security.
The weekly balance provides a clear conclusion: these movements were not chaotic or disorderly but the result of sustained tension that culminated in today's increase. As in previous instances, the informal market preemptively adjusted prices progressively, sending clear signals about the lack of confidence in the Cuban peso.
While the regime fails to create stability or credibility, the informal market continues to function as the true thermometer of the Cuban economy.
The closure of this week confirms that the peso's devaluation is not occurring in isolated shocks but through a constant erosion, where each day adds pressure to an increasingly fragile economic system.
Understanding Cuba's Informal Currency Market Dynamics
What caused the increase in the dollar and euro in Cuba's informal market?
The increase was due to sustained pressure on the Cuban peso driven by factors like energy crises, persistent inflation, and political uncertainty, prompting economic actors to anticipate and gradually adjust their prices.
Why is the euro considered the strongest currency in Cuba's informal market?
The euro is considered the strongest because it has shown a significant and consistent increase over the week, gaining 20 pesos in seven days, which indicates its growing demand and reliability compared to other currencies.