Cuban economist Pedro Monreal issued a warning on Friday regarding the early implementation of government directives in Cuba to tackle a severe fuel shortage. These measures, he noted, were supposed to be publicly explained "within a week."
On his platform "El Estado como tal," Monreal suggested that the situation resembles what he termed a "zero option," although he clarified that it hasn't reached that extreme yet.
Monreal recalled that the "zero option" emerged in 1990 as both a scenario and a contingency plan in anticipation of nearly zero hydrocarbon availability following the collapse of ties between Cuba and the former USSR.
While the drastic scenario didn't fully materialize in the 90s, Cuba did endure a significant economic, social, and political crisis, leading to economic changes and a recession exit that, according to Monreal, failed to resolve structural issues and created new ones.
Comparing Past and Present Crises
Monreal highlighted differences between the past oil shock and the current situation. The 90s crisis was foreseeable due to the end of favorable Soviet supply conditions and Cuba's lack of foreign currency. In contrast, the current shock is abrupt, caused by a "sudden global imposition" from the United States.
Although the full scope of new directives remains unclear, Monreal noted that measures implemented in various localities over the last 24 hours seem to mirror the initial pattern of the Special Period, focusing on energy and fuel conservation.
The Lessons of the 1990s
As a historical reference, Monreal pointed out that in 1990, three sets of measures were adopted: preliminary limited actions in May, followed by two broad rounds in August and September. The initial round prioritized electricity savings, fuel savings for major industrial consumers and agricultural activities, and curbed fuel consumption for transportation.
The second round, enacted shortly after, extended fuel-saving measures and promoted adaptations in transportation, employment, and rationing consumption.
Monreal expressed concern over whether the government had learned from one of the "major lessons" of the 90s: that agricultural management should be prioritized alongside fuel conservation from the outset. He warned against designing agricultural management with a survival economy mindset, such as urban subsistence farming and municipal self-sufficiency. He noted that the agricultural management of the 90s was relatively successful due to market reliance and land de-statization.
Current Energy Crisis and Government Response
The energy crisis in Cuba, exacerbated by a lack of oil supply since December 2025 following the U.S. naval blockade on Venezuela, has led to a drastic change on the island. This has resulted in a fuel deficit affecting electricity generation, transportation, and other essential services.
The Cuban government has implemented directives inspired by the 1990s Special Period measures to address the fuel shortage. These include prioritizing state consumption, reducing energy expenditure, and redistributing the available fuel.
However, specific details on how the crisis will be mitigated in the short term have not been provided.
Understanding Cuba's Fuel Shortage and Government Strategies
What is the "zero option" mentioned by Pedro Monreal?
The "zero option" refers to a scenario and contingency plan from 1990 for nearly zero hydrocarbon availability in Cuba following the collapse of relations with the USSR.
How is the current fuel crisis different from the one in the 1990s?
The 1990s crisis was predictable due to the end of Soviet supply conditions and Cuba's lack of foreign currency. The present crisis is sudden, attributed to a global imposition by the United States.
What measures has the Cuban government taken to address the fuel shortage?
The government has enacted directives inspired by 1990s measures, focusing on state consumption prioritization, energy expenditure reduction, and fuel redistribution.