Cuban economist Pedro Monreal took to social media on Thursday to express his concerns following Miguel Díaz-Canel's recent address. Monreal pointed out that the government's proposed measures signal yet another cycle of austerity and a "contingency plan" eerily reminiscent of the Special Period's darkest days.
In a detailed analysis shared on Facebook, Monreal highlighted three particularly notable aspects of Díaz-Canel's presentation:
Firstly, the Council of Ministers has approved a fresh austerity package. Secondly, there is an official expectation of achieving a near-term increase in fuel imports. Lastly, the leadership persists in adhering to an "outdated" vision for reforming centralized planning.
A Return to the "Zero Option" in Energy Planning
Monreal scrutinized the government directives aimed at tackling the "acute fuel shortage," which are set to be disclosed within a week. According to Monreal, these directives are essentially modern iterations of the infamous "zero option," an extreme rationing scheme discussed during the 1990s but never fully implemented. "The contingency plan is merely the zero option under a new guise," Monreal warned.
Lack of Diplomatic Urgency Amid Severe Crisis
Monreal also criticized what he perceives as a lack of urgency in diplomatic efforts with the United States, despite the government's acknowledgment of severe fuel scarcity. He suggests that Havana may be hoping to secure alternative short-term fuel suppliers rather than prioritizing direct negotiations with Washington to ensure a steady oil flow. "It seems there is hope for short-term fuel suppliers," he noted.
Economic Reforms Stuck in the Past
While not the most pressing issue, Monreal also addressed the regime's stubbornness in tackling centralized planning deficiencies with approaches reminiscent of Soviet-era models from six decades ago. Specifically, he highlighted how the regime's proposals evoke the Liberman-Kosygin reforms from the 1960s USSR, which are largely considered outdated. "They insist on addressing centralized planning flaws with obsolete ideas," Monreal remarked.
Worsening Social Conditions
Monreal had previously warned on platform X that the proposed "contingency plan" could herald a new phase of severe social decline. "These could be journeys from the economic system's thermodynamic breakdown towards the deterioration of human metabolism," he expressed, using one of his most striking phrases.
In another post, he cautioned that this new plan might exacerbate the crisis inherited from the failed "ordering" of the economy, potentially worsening food insecurity due to the regime's flawed agricultural policies. "A new contingency plan is on the horizon, aggravating the inherited crisis from the failed economic reordering," he cautioned.
A Grim Outlook for the Cuban People
Monreal's statements reflect a growing skepticism among experts regarding the Cuban government's ability to manage the ongoing energy and economic crisis. To Monreal, the official discourse lacks structural solutions, instead recycling failed strategies that will only lead to more austerity, shortages, and a decline in living conditions.
As the regime rolls out new directives, Cubans are left facing a harsh reality characterized by prolonged power outages, fuel shortages, rampant inflation, and an escalating food crisis.
Key Questions on Cuba's Economic Crisis
What is the "zero option" in Cuba's economic context?
The "zero option" refers to an extreme rationing and survival scheme discussed in the 1990s during Cuba's Special Period, focusing on minimizing resource usage and surviving with minimal imports.
Why is there skepticism about Cuba's economic reforms?
Experts like Pedro Monreal express skepticism because the Cuban government continues to rely on outdated economic models reminiscent of Soviet-era reforms, which have proven ineffective in addressing the country's current challenges.