The Cuban regime has made a move, but the game board remains unchanged.
Statements by Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío, alongside the latest announcement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MINREX), outline Havana's renewed approach towards the United States: open to dialogue, yet steadfast in maintaining the core of its authority.
While the regime seems to extend an olive branch, it simultaneously fortifies its defenses.
In a carefully measured interview with the Associated Press, Fernández de Cossío stated, "We are open to dialogue with the United States, but the Constitution, the economy, and the socialist system of governance are not up for discussion."
These words encapsulate the essence of Cuba's 2026 strategy: tactical flexibility entwined with structural rigidity, maneuvering creatively while eyeing the clock.
MINREX's Diplomatic Facade
The February 1 statement from MINREX set the tone for a new official lexicon.
For the first time in six decades, the Cuban regime issued an institutional text devoid of references to the "blockade," the "empire," or the "revolution." Instead, it advocated technical cooperation, international legality, and peaceful coexistence.
"Cuba condemns terrorism and reaffirms its commitment to cooperate with the United States to enhance regional security," the document declared. The shift in tone reflects not ideological transformation, but a political survival tactic.
Cornered by an energy crisis, economic collapse, and financial sanctions, the regime seeks re-legitimization on the global stage.
Protecting the Foundations of Power
When Fernández de Cossío excludes the Constitution, economy, and socialist governance from discussions, he guards the three pillars sustaining the single-party dictatorship.
The 2019 Constitution states socialism is "irrevocable" (Article 4) and designates the Communist Party as the "superior guiding force of society and the State" (Article 5). Article 229 prohibits reforms to these tenets.
The state-run economic model ensures the military conglomerate GAESA maintains opaque control over tourism, foreign currency, trade, and strategic sectors.
Cuban socialism is a power structure, not merely an ideology. Discussing these topics would challenge the legitimacy of the Party, military, and Castro family.
Havana: Balancing Calculation and Fear
The shift in MINREX's tone and Fernández de Cossío's remarks emerge from an unprecedented vulnerability.
The January 3 capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces left Cuba without its primary energy and financial ally.
The suspension of Venezuelan oil shipments, remittance restrictions, and tariffs on countries supplying oil to the island (like Mexico) have economically suffocated the regime.
Faced with this scenario, Havana seeks to demonstrate goodwill by offering cooperation against terrorism and money laundering without altering its internal structure. It's a containment strategy: feigning openness to buy time.
The immediate goal is to prevent an escalation leading to total economic collapse or irreversible diplomatic isolation while the regime reorganizes its alliances with Russia, China, and Iran.
Washington's Strategic Maneuvering
That fear is justified. Before the fall of Chavismo, the Trump–Rubio administration outlined a hemispheric strategy known as the Donroe Doctrine (an updated Monroe Doctrine): restructuring the Western Hemisphere through democratic transitions of Moscow- and Beijing-allied authoritarian regimes.
The "Rubio vision" within this doctrine defines a political sequence: stabilization, economic recovery, reconciliation, and transition. This roadmap was applied in Venezuela, where the U.S. leads institutional reconstruction under international oversight.
Cuba is the next logical step. For Washington, the island is not just a dictatorship but the ideological and logistical source of the anti-American Latin American axis. Leaving its structure intact would be akin to leaving the virus alive, as Trump administration advisers note: not cutting off the serpent's head.
Consequently, the U.S. will not accept dialogue excluding the political system, Constitution, or economic model. These are precisely the three axes the Donroe Doctrine seeks to transform.
Donald Trump and Marco Rubio recognize that lasting stability in the region requires dismantling the Castro regime. In their view, dialogue can only serve as a tool for pressure, not concession.
The Impending Storm
As Havana clings to its socialist system (the cornerstone of its power structure) and Washington reinforces its maximum pressure policy, the point of equilibrium narrows.
The United States may accept technical discussions but will continue to target the regime's economic foundations: sanctions on GAESA, financial limitations, blocking its energy allies, and diplomatic isolation.
Simultaneously, Washington will seek to fracture the internal power structure, creating incentives for a negotiated transition from within, as occurred in Venezuela.
The message is clear: "We can talk, but change is non-negotiable."
In conclusion, the Cuban regime attempts to survive through a strategy of pretense: lowering ideological rhetoric, adopting technical language, and offering limited cooperation, yet without yielding on the essentials.
Fernández de Cossío embodies this adaptation attempt: engage in dialogue without change, negotiate without concession.
However, in the era of the Donroe Doctrine, that language no longer deceives Washington. The United States seeks not coexistence, but reconfiguration. To achieve it, it will utilize a combination of sanctions, diplomacy, and multilateral pressure.
The dilemma for Havana is clear: accept a controlled transition process or face total isolation and an increasingly imminent internal collapse.
Once again, history has placed the regime before its mirror. This time, neither the language of cooperation nor the rhetoric of sovereignty can hide the truth: the Cuban regime does not want to change and will do everything possible to maintain the status quo. But the United States will not wait.
Key Issues in U.S.-Cuba Relations
What is the new strategy of the Cuban regime towards the United States?
The Cuban regime's new strategy involves opening up to dialogue with the United States but firmly maintaining its constitutional, economic, and socialist governance systems.
How has the Cuban regime's rhetoric changed recently?
The Cuban regime has shifted its rhetoric by avoiding terms like "blockade" and "imperialism," instead focusing on technical cooperation and peaceful coexistence.
Why is Cuba interested in engaging with the United States?
Cuba is interested in engaging with the United States to alleviate diplomatic and economic pressure, while avoiding demands for political openness and maintaining its internal power structure.