Jorge Piñón, who leads the Latin America and Caribbean Energy Program at the University of Texas, has cautioned that Cuba is on the brink of widespread blackouts in the coming weeks. He also foresees possible discussions between Washington and Havana by March.
"Cuba is facing not just electrical blackouts, but a broader energy crisis, particularly with liquid fuels like diesel. Diesel is crucial for Cuba—it powers public transport, road transportation, trains, generators, and the water pump systems across the island," Piñón explained to Martí Noticias.
The fuel situation in Cuba, as Piñón highlighted, is unprecedented. "This is indeed a serious problem, but I am not aware of a case quite like this. Cuba might be the first. We are witnessing increasing blackouts, lasting from 15, 20, to over 40 hours in many parts of the country," he noted.
Piñón anticipates that "one way or another, by March, there needs to be a meeting at the negotiating table between Americans and Cubans."
"A potential solution lies in the fact that the United States currently holds millions of barrels of Venezuelan crude oil, confiscated from Venezuela. Additionally, Venezuela had previously provided the U.S. with around 50 million barrels. Temporarily alleviating Cuba's crisis might involve the U.S. supplying Cuban needs with this Venezuelan oil, which is in U.S. possession, allowing for survival while discussions take place," Piñón suggested.
The expert believes that the United States could use this as leverage, essentially saying, "We're helping you; you need to change your policies and economic model."
Impact on Everyday Cubans
For the everyday Cuban, Piñón predicts dire months ahead. "We already know the Cuban people's suffering due to the lack of electricity. Now, it's about transportation. We're talking about food transport from farms to cities, the sugar cane harvest, nickel operations in Moa, the scarcity of liquefied gas, and the gas cylinders that are currently substituting electricity for cooking," he predicted.
"Unfortunately, the situation in Cuba is chaotic for our brothers on the island, and it is going to worsen," he lamented.
Trump's Tariff Threats
President Donald Trump escalated his maximum pressure policy against the Cuban government this week by signing an executive order declaring a "national emergency." This order threatens additional tariffs on countries supplying oil to the island.
The decision aims to exacerbate the current fuel shortage, which is causing prolonged blackouts, transportation paralysis, and severe economic and social repercussions.
Trump justified the action by accusing the Cuban regime of posing an "unusual and extraordinary" threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy, citing its ties with Russia, China, Iran, and groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
While denying any intent to strangle Cuba, Trump himself stated that the regime "cannot survive" under these conditions, as reported by the BBC.
The executive order aims to deter third countries from selling oil to Cuba through the threat of increased tariffs, expanding a strategy Trump initiated in 2017 by reversing the opening pursued by Barack Obama and reinstating strict restrictions.
So far in 2026, Cuba has received only one shipment of 84,000 barrels from Mexico, equating to less than 3,000 barrels daily, according to Kpler data cited by The Financial Times. At this rate, the island would have reserves for merely 15 to 20 days.
For years, Venezuelan oil not only met part of Cuba's domestic consumption but also allowed the Cuban government to earn foreign currency through resale.
With that flow cut off, Mexico became the main energy support, with estimated shipments of around 12,000 barrels per day during 2025.
This is precisely the target of Trump's new order: to warn Mexico against replacing Venezuela as a key supplier, the source highlighted.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded harshly, accusing the Trump administration of attempting to "strangle the Cuban economy," labeling it "fascist, criminal, and genocidal."
Understanding Cuba's Energy Predicament
What is causing the current energy crisis in Cuba?
The crisis stems from severe shortages of diesel and other liquid fuels, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs and reduced Venezuelan oil supplies.
How might the United States assist Cuba during this crisis?
The U.S. could provide Cuba with Venezuelan crude oil currently in its possession, offering temporary relief while negotiations occur.