Amid rising tensions between Washington and Havana, and following the unexpected arrest of Nicolás Maduro, Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vasili Nebenzia, made a statement drawing a parallel—and issuing a warning—between the Venezuelan crisis and Cuba's future.
In comments to Russian state television, reported by EFE, Nebenzia emphasized that unlike Venezuela, where an internal betrayal allegedly led to Maduro's downfall, Cuba's power structure remains unfractured.
"In Venezuela, betrayal undoubtedly occurred. It is openly discussed. Some high-ranking officials effectively betrayed the president," the ambassador declared.
"That scenario will not work in Cuba," he asserted.
Nebenzia's remarks come at a sensitive moment for Havana, plagued by an energy crisis, growing social unrest, intensified U.S. sanctions, and a heavy reliance on Russian oil following the collapse of Venezuelan supplies.
The Context of a Prediction
The ambassador not only absolved Cuba of a similar betrayal but elevated his statement to a political prophecy, implying that Havana's regime will withstand both external and internal pressures without collapsing.
This assertion gains significance following Maduro's capture in early January 2026, an event Russia has labeled a "military aggression" by the United States.
While Nebenzia did not delve into specifics about the alleged betrayal that led to Maduro's arrest, his implicit message was clear: in Cuba, unlike Venezuela, the governing elite remains unified and aligned with its leadership, without divisions that could undermine central power.
Cuba as a Key Ally in Latin America
Russia's response underscores the importance the Kremlin places on its strategic partners in the region. Maduro was seen as Moscow's chief ally in Latin America, while Cuba holds the second spot in this hierarchy.
However, Havana has become an increasingly fragile link in this alliance. Throughout 2024, Russia supplied the island with about 6,000 barrels of oil daily, according to the University of Texas Energy Institute.
Now, with a new executive order from the Trump administration imposing tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, this lifeline is in jeopardy.
The Cuban government reacted harshly to the U.S. announcement, calling the measure "an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States."
From Moscow, the Kremlin also warned about the risks of a possible "total blockade" and described as "alarming" the reports of a potential offensive to force a regime change on the island.
Trump Intensifies Rhetoric: "Cuba Won't Survive"
Tensions escalated further when President Donald Trump openly stated that the Cuban regime is heading towards collapse.
During a public address in Washington, Trump remarked, "It seems it won't survive. Cuba won't survive."
When asked whether his administration aims to "strangle" the island with these new sanctions, the president said that term was "very harsh," though he did not hide his disdain for the Cuban system, describing it as a "nation in decline."
"One must feel sorry for Cuba. They have treated people very poorly. We have many Cuban Americans who were treated very badly and would probably like to return," Trump added.
This Thursday, the U.S. president signed an executive order imposing new punitive tariffs specifically aimed at cutting the crude supply still reaching Havana.
Moscow's Support
In response to the American encirclement, the Kremlin has taken diplomatic and military steps. In March 2025, Russia and Cuba signed a military cooperation agreement, further solidifying their strategic alliance.
More recently, Russia's Interior Minister, Vladimir Kolokoltsev, visited the island and met with Raúl Castro.
During the visit, Kolokoltsev strongly condemned the U.S. operation in Venezuela:
"The U.S. attack on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, was a military aggression," he said, while expressing condolences "to the relatives and friends of the Interior Ministry and Revolutionary Armed Forces agents who lost their lives during these tragic events."
President Vladimir Putin, on his part, has so far avoided any direct criticism of Trump but has reiterated his support for Cuba:
"Moscow stands in solidarity with the determination to defend its sovereignty and independence," he assured in a recent statement from the Kremlin.
The Shadow of a Warning
Ambassador Nebenzia's statements are part of a broader Moscow narrative, aiming to project stability in its alliances and denounce any Western intervention attempts as a form of hybrid warfare.
By dismissing the possibility of "traitors" in Cuba, Nebenzia not only praised the loyalty within the Cuban regime but also issued a warning: if the United States expects to replicate the Caracas scenario in Havana, it might face a more formidable barrier.
Will such a prophecy hold true?
Key Insights on Cuba's Political Crisis
What did the Russian ambassador indicate about a potential betrayal in Cuba?
The Russian ambassador, Vasili Nebenzia, suggested that unlike Venezuela, Cuba's government lacks internal divisions or betrayals that could lead to its downfall.
How has the U.S. responded to the Cuban crisis?
The U.S., under President Trump, has imposed new tariffs aimed at cutting off Cuba's oil supply, intensifying economic pressure on the island.
What is Russia's stance on the U.S. actions against Cuba?
Russia has condemned the U.S. measures, warning of potential total blockades and reiterating its support for Cuba's sovereignty.