Cuba is teetering on the edge of an energy crisis. The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday may mark a pivotal moment for the island nation.
By signing an executive order that paves the way for tariffs and sanctions on countries supplying oil to Havana, Washington not only reinforced its political stance but also jeopardized Cuba's already precarious energy survival.
The aim is to sever one of the few remaining lifelines for the regime: access to foreign crude. In a context of chronic blackouts, halted transportation, and a collapsing economy, the ramifications for millions of Cubans' daily lives could be catastrophic.
According to Financial Times analysis based on data from Kpler, Cuba currently has oil reserves sufficient for only about 15 to 20 days, assuming current consumption and national production levels remain unchanged.
At the start of the year, the island had approximately 460,000 barrels in inventory and has only received 84,900 barrels this year, originating from a single Mexican shipment on January 9. With this buffer, Cuba can sustain its productive apparatus and, most critically, its electrical system for just two or three weeks.
Adding to this is the scarcity of fuel oil, essential for thermoelectric plants, placing the energy system in its most critical state in decades.
The Venezuelan and Mexican Setbacks
The crisis worsened following two simultaneous blows: heightened U.S. pressure on tankers transporting crude from Venezuela and the suspension or reduction of shipments from Mexico.
Even though President Claudia Sheinbaum assured continued support for Cuba through Pemex contracts or humanitarian aid, Kpler's data indicates a minimal flow since the year's start. Reports suggest Pemex even canceled a shipment destined for Havana, signaling that Washington's pressure is resulting in tangible decisions.
Moreover, Cuba carries over $1.5 billion in debt to Mexico for crude and diesel exports made between May and November of the previous year, according to analyst Ramses Pech.
Impact on Daily Life
The collapse of Venezuelan supply was the harshest blow. Back in 2025, Caracas' oil covered about 30% of Cuba's energy needs, with daily deliveries between 32,000 and 35,000 barrels.
Without Venezuela, with Mexico on hold, and the U.S. ready to penalize any supplier, Havana is left without oxygen.
The effects are already evident nationwide. Gas stations dealing in national currency are closed, leaving the informal market as the only source for many, with prices skyrocketing.
In places like Quivicán or Santiago de las Vegas, a liter sells for 700 to 900 pesos; in San Antonio de los Baños, it hovers around 1,000, and in Camagüey, prices have reached up to 1,500 pesos per liter. One mother recounted paying that amount for just two liters to cook during power outages.
Queues have become kilometers long and not just out of necessity, but from fear.
In provinces like Camagüey, drivers and transport operators keep vigil from dawn, uncertain if a tanker will arrive. Many have reduced routes, ceased services, or hoarded fuel at home, reminiscent of the harshest times of the Special Period.
A Nation in Darkness
Compounding this bleak picture is the deterioration of the electrical system.
The Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant in Matanzas went offline on Thursday, causing an additional impact of about 200 megawatts. During peak hours, the deficit can cover up to three-quarters of national demand. Essentially, most of the country is plunged into darkness daily.
The question isn't just how much oil Cuba has left, but how long a nation can endure when its transportation, hospitals, schools, and industry rely on a fuel that's nearly nonexistent.
Nicholas Watson of consulting firm Teneo described the situation ominously: the economic crisis is "so severe that it could be existential for the regime."
This scenario isn't the result of an isolated event. It stems from decades of mismanagement, an economic model that never generated real wealth or autonomy, and a chronic dependency on external allies who can no longer—or will no longer—sustain the island.
Meanwhile, ordinary citizens bear the brunt: those who stand in endless lines, cook with whatever they can find, and survive amidst blackouts, inflation, and inadequate wages.
Trump has fulfilled his recent promise that Cuba would no longer receive "oil or money" unless it engaged in negotiations with the United States.
He has already signed an executive order declaring a national emergency, arguing that Cuba's policies and actions pose an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security and foreign policy.
With these new measures, the regime's room for maneuver is even more limited. If no new shipments arrive in the coming weeks, Cuba isn't just facing another crisis; it's facing a tipping point.
And once again, it is the people caught in the midst of the collapse.
Cuba's Energy Crisis: Key Questions Answered
What impact will U.S. sanctions have on Cuba's oil supply?
The sanctions aim to cut off foreign oil supplies to Cuba, which could drastically affect the country's already limited energy resources, exacerbating blackouts, transportation halts, and economic struggles.
How has Cuba been managing its oil reserves?
Cuba has been relying on a dwindling inventory and minimal foreign shipments, primarily from a single Mexican delivery, to sustain its energy needs, which are insufficient for long-term stability.
Why is the Venezuelan oil supply so important to Cuba?
Venezuela's oil covered about 30% of Cuba's energy requirements, making it a critical component of the island's energy infrastructure. The loss of this supply has severely impacted Cuba's energy situation.