Spanish journalist and former parliamentarian, Pilar Rahola, suggests that in the wake of the decline of Chavismo in Venezuela, Cuba under Miguel Díaz-Canel faces three potential scenarios with the United States: intervention, negotiation, or collapse.
In her article titled "Is Cuba's Time Up?" published in Infobae, Rahola notes that the seismic changes in Venezuela might lead to a final crack in Cuba's regime.
She emphasizes that the cessation of oil and financial aid from Caracas, which has been a cornerstone of Cuba's economy since 2000, could deliver a fatal blow to a regime already burdened with significant weaknesses.
This perspective gained more clarity on Thursday as the White House increased pressure on the Cuban government. President Donald Trump signed a new national emergency decree concerning Cuba, which extends financial sanctions, permits the use of blocked assets for "controlled humanitarian purposes," and authorizes the State Department to coordinate "extraordinary responses" to a potential political collapse on the island.
Potential Outcomes for Cuba
1- Intervention
According to Rahola, a limited military intervention akin to the operation in Venezuela remains a possibility. Trump has shown a willingness to employ force, and his national security team—headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio—has discussed "surgical" action scenarios in the event of massive repression or uncontrolled migration.
However, the author cautions that "Cuba is not Venezuela," highlighting its trained military, internationally experienced fighters (including those involved in Ukraine), and a well-established repressive framework. An open intervention, she warns, would be "an adventure with an uncertain outcome."
2- Negotiation
A more pragmatic alternative could be a transitional agreement with the regime, aligning with Trump's negotiating style. However, recent moves by Russia, China, and Mexico complicate this path.
Rahola points out the arrival of Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev in Havana, interpreting it as a statement of intent from the Kremlin to support the Cuban regime. Additionally, China announced a new wave of economic and food aid, and Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed that Mexico will continue sending oil to Cuba as "humanitarian aid," ignoring Washington's warnings, which threatened further tariffs on those supplying crude to Havana.
3- Collapse
The most likely scenario, according to Rahola, is internal collapse. With Venezuela's support waning and Cuba's economy in its worst crisis since the 1990s, the regime might fall without direct intervention. Trump might choose to let the economic, political, and social deterioration push the government to its natural end.
Rahola reminds us that the country is experiencing prolonged blackouts, rampant inflation, widespread shortages, and a massive migration exodus. "A slight tightening of the financial noose by the United States might be all that's needed," she suggests.
The Emergency Decree: Prelude to a New Era?
The new decree signed by Trump establishes mechanisms to "directly assist the Cuban people" without involving the regime, and it opens the possibility of an international fund for post-communist reconstruction on the island, coordinated by USAID and the State Department.
Sources in Washington indicate that this move is in response to intelligence reports predicting a "progressive institutional collapse" in Cuba within the next six months. The White House does not rule out expanding the executive order to allow "immediate humanitarian response operations" if the situation worsens.
The message is clear: Washington sees the Castro regime entering its terminal phase. As Rahola stated, the options of intervention, negotiation, or collapse signify that Cuba's clock could indeed be striking zero hour.
Understanding Cuba's Potential Future Scenarios
What are the potential scenarios for Cuba's future?
The three potential scenarios are intervention, negotiation, or collapse. These paths involve varying degrees of international involvement and internal change.
How does the new decree affect Cuba?
The decree increases financial sanctions, allows the use of blocked assets for humanitarian purposes, and prepares for potential extraordinary responses to political collapse in Cuba.
Why is internal collapse considered the most likely outcome?
With Venezuela's support dwindling and Cuba's severe economic crisis, the regime could fall without direct intervention, driven by worsening economic and social conditions.