According to a recent report by the British newspaper Financial Times (FT), Cuba could face a critical oil shortage in just a few weeks. The analysis, based on data from the company Kpler, which tracks global ship movements and energy transactions, highlights the island's precarious situation.
The publication notes that Cuba's crude oil reserves may only last 15 to 20 days if current consumption and production levels persist. This alarming prediction is compounded by a shortage of fuel oil, essential for electricity generation, which heightens the threat of an energy collapse.
The FT reports that the crisis has worsened due to Mexico's decision to halt fuel shipments and increased U.S. pressure on tankers from Venezuela.
"Cuba can operate for 15 to 20 days," stated Victoria Grabenwöger, a crude research analyst at Kpler. She explained that this year, Cuba received only 84,900 barrels of oil from a single Mexican shipment on January 9, and had 460,000 barrels in storage at the start of 2026.
The report warns that unless deliveries resume, the country's electricity situation could "hit rock bottom." The deterioration of national thermoelectric plants and lack of fuel are pushing the electric grid to its most critical point in years.
This Thursday, the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant in Matanzas went offline, leading to an additional 200-megawatt shortfall. During peak hours, the generation deficit could cover up to three-quarters of national demand, according to energy system reports.
"They have a major crisis on their hands if more deliveries don't arrive in the coming weeks," declared Jorge Piñón, a petroleum expert from the University of Texas, to the Financial Times.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum denied halting oil exports to Cuba, stating that they occur through Pemex contracts or as humanitarian aid. However, Kpler's data indicates minimal flow since the start of the year.
Nicholas Watson, an analyst at Teneo, warned the FT that "the island's economic crisis is so severe it could be existential for the Cuban regime."
The British newspaper also recalls that following the Trump administration's decision to stop Venezuelan oil shipments to Havana, the subsidized oil resale scheme by Caracas in international markets was exposed, a practice long criticized by analysts and regime opponents.
The scenario outlined by the Financial Times suggests an imminent energy collapse if the Cuban regime cannot restore oil flow from its main allies soon.
In this context, Cuba has accumulated a debt exceeding $1.5 billion with Mexico for crude oil and diesel exports between May and November last year, according to energy sector analyst Ramses Pech.
President Sheinbaum assured on Wednesday that Mexico "will always be there" to support Cuba with oil and humanitarian aid amid the island's energy crisis following reduced Venezuelan supplies and the U.S. embargo.
"If Mexico can help create better conditions for Cuba, we will always be there. It's a relationship with the Cuban people living in very difficult conditions," Sheinbaum stated during her daily press conference, reported EFE.
Her decision comes as President Donald Trump warned that "there will be no more oil or money for Cuba."
Additionally, Mexico recently took a step that was previously discussed behind closed doors: PEMEX canceled a crude oil shipment to Cuba, a clear signal that U.S. political pressure is translating into concrete decisions impacting the already fragile energy situation on the island.
Frequently Asked Questions about Cuba's Potential Oil Crisis
What is causing Cuba's oil shortage?
The oil shortage in Cuba is primarily due to halted fuel shipments from Mexico, increased U.S. pressure on Venezuelan tankers, and the island's limited crude reserves.
How long can Cuba's current oil reserves last?
Cuba's current oil reserves are estimated to last only 15 to 20 days if current consumption and production levels continue.
What impact could the oil shortage have on Cuba?
The oil shortage could lead to a severe energy crisis, with electricity generation deficits potentially covering up to three-quarters of national demand during peak hours.