The Cuban leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is currently pegged at a 52% likelihood of relinquishing power before 2027, according to data from the U.S.-based financial market, Kalshi. This platform, which operates legally under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States, provides a regulated space for trading based on real-world events.
Kalshi enables users to invest in various political, economic, and social events, with contract prices reflecting investor expectations. One such contract, titled "World Leaders Out Before 2027?" speculates on the potential departure of global leaders from their positions by January 1, 2027.
In the context of Cuba, the contract specifically addresses the possibility of Díaz-Canel stepping down as the first secretary of the Communist Party, a role that consolidates political power on the island.
The market stipulates that the contract will be considered fulfilled if Díaz-Canel or the party authorities officially announce his departure, or if it occurs before the deadline. Only announcements confirmed by reputable international media outlets, such as Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, The Washington Post, or CNN, will be accepted.
According to the latest update, Díaz-Canel's probability of leaving office stands at 52%, slightly higher than British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (50%) and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (49%).
In the same arena, other notable figures include Colombian President Gustavo Petro (94%), Peruvian President José Jeri (92%), and Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (58%), who are among the leaders most likely to exit before 2027.
The total volume traded in this market exceeds $3.4 million, indicating significant international interest in high-impact political changes.
Based in New York, Kalshi operates under rigorous federal scrutiny and is recognized for providing a legitimate financial platform to gauge expectations on verifiable events, ranging from inflation and elections to political transitions.
The fact that Díaz-Canel is assigned a probability exceeding 50% implies that international investors perceive growing instability in Cuba's leadership amid an ongoing economic crisis, persistent power outages, food shortages, and rising social unrest on the island.
Possibility of Political Change in Cuba
What is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a U.S.-based financial market platform that allows users to invest in real-world events. It operates legally under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Why is Díaz-Canel's probability of leaving office significant?
Díaz-Canel's probability of over 50% suggests international investors see increasing instability in Cuban leadership due to economic hardships, power outages, food shortages, and rising social discontent.
How are Kalshi's predictions verified?
Kalshi only considers announcements verified by prominent international media outlets like Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, The Washington Post, and CNN.