As the Cuban government continues to portray its alliance with Moscow as a strategic counter to the United States, a recent analysis suggests a less grandiose reality: for the Kremlin, Cuba now represents more of a political symbol than an ally that can be effectively protected.
An expert on Russian affairs warns that if Washington decides to escalate pressure on the island, Moscow's options would be limited to rhetoric, constrained by the ongoing war in Ukraine and its own economic and military limitations.
This cautionary note appears in an article published by Eurasia Daily Monitor, a platform of the influential U.S.-based The Jamestown Foundation, authored by analyst Sergey Sukhankin, an expert in Russian foreign policy and international security. The article argues that after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Cuba has emerged as one of Moscow's most loyal political partners but simultaneously one of the most vulnerable in material terms.
According to the analysis, the relationship between the two nations has primarily bolstered Russia's narrative of a "multipolar" world, underscoring the idea that the Kremlin still retains allies in the Western Hemisphere, close to the United States. Yet, this alliance is more symbolic than substantial.
Economic cooperation, covering areas such as energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and tourism, has had limited impact, serving more as a supplement to geopolitical discourse than as a source of tangible benefits.
In recent years, Moscow has used Cuba as a testing ground for alternative financial mechanisms to the Western system, such as employing the ruble in bilateral transactions or introducing Mir cards, and positioning the island as an entry point for Russian technology exports to the Latin American market. However, Cuba's economic deterioration and Russia's dwindling resources have prevented this cooperation from providing any significant relief to the island's population.
The article highlights that the Kremlin's concern is more about reputation than economics. Losing Cuba as an ally would have a profound ideological impact both within Russia and globally, particularly among nations in the so-called Global South that view Moscow as a counterbalance to Washington. In this context, Russian analysts cited in the report warn that Cuba's potential downfall would significantly weaken the Kremlin's narrative of multipolarity.
Recent statements by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reflect this unease. In mid-January, she described the language used by U.S. President Donald Trump towards Havana as "unacceptable blackmail" after he urged the Cuban regime to make a deal "before it's too late," following the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
The analysis points out that the Kremlin's top priority remains the war in Ukraine, leading Moscow to deprioritize or abandon other strategic allies worldwide. In this scenario, should the United States decide to toughen its stance on Cuba, Russia's response is unlikely to extend beyond public statements and diplomatic gestures.
Adding to this is the military cooperation between the two countries, which was strengthened in October 2025 with the ratification of a bilateral agreement for specialist exchanges, joint exercises, and security coordination. Although some Russian ultranationalist circles have speculated about the potential deployment of advanced weaponry on the island, the report itself views these notions as closer to propaganda than a feasible reality.
For Sukhankin, Moscow's dilemma is evident: while Cuba remains a powerful symbol of historical resistance to the United States, symbols, he warns, "fall if no one protects them." In the current context, it appears evident that Russia is no longer in a position to do so.
Implications of U.S. Pressure on Cuba-Russia Relations
Why is Cuba considered a symbolic asset for Russia?
Cuba is viewed as a symbolic asset for Russia because it supports the Kremlin's narrative of a multipolar world and represents an ally in the Western Hemisphere, close to the United States. While the relationship is more symbolic than practical, it serves to demonstrate that Russia retains allies in America's vicinity.
How has the war in Ukraine affected Russia's ability to support Cuba?
The ongoing war in Ukraine has strained Russia's military and economic resources, limiting its ability to offer tangible support to Cuba. This has left Moscow with little more than rhetorical backing, as its primary focus remains on the conflict in Ukraine.