Currency Exchange: Informal Market in Cuba Sees Rise in Two Key Currencies

There has been a notable shift in Cuba's informal currency market as both the euro and the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) see an increase in value.

As of 7:00 a.m. (local time) on January 21, the euro is being traded at an average of 535 CUP, marking a rise of five units compared to the previous day, according to the independent outlet elTOQUE.

This marks the fourth consecutive day of gains for the European currency.

In comparison, the U.S. dollar remains steady at 490 CUP, a level it reached on Tuesday.

The MLC, meanwhile, has climbed from 400 to 410 CUP, experiencing a rollercoaster of fluctuations over recent days.

Exchange rates as of 7:05 a.m. on January 21, 2026, in Cuba, as per elTOQUE, are as follows:

• USD to CUP: 490 CUP
• EUR to CUP: 535 CUP
• MLC to CUP: 410 CUP

This upward trend in the informal currency market contrasts with the relative stability in the dollar and euro observed in December 2025, despite the implementation of the "floating rate" (Segment III) on the 18th of that month, which governs the official exchange rate.

However, as the Cuban Money and Finance Observatory (OMFi) recently pointed out, this measure did not cause immediate or drastic changes.

OMFi's models had already forecasted an upward trend for January:

• Dollar: central projection of 465 CUP (range between 454 and 480 CUP)
• Euro: projected at 505 CUP (range between 479 and 515 CUP)
• MLC: estimated around 427 CUP (range between 398 and 440 CUP)

The current rates—with the dollar at 490 CUP and the euro at 535 CUP—exceed these forecasts, underscoring a market under pressure from uncertainty and lack of confidence in the Cuban peso.

Factors Driving the Market

Several elements contribute to the upward trend:

• The capture of leader Nicolás Maduro has introduced new instability in Venezuela, a crucial ally of Cuba.
• A limited supply of foreign currency that dwindled at the end of December and has yet to fully recover.
• A decline in trust towards Cuban institutions, especially following the freezing of foreign currency in national banks.
• The use of MLC as a monetary policy tool, with the Central Bank buying MLC at rates similar to the dollar, despite low actual demand.

Medium-Term Risks

The OMFi highlights several growing risks in the current situation:

• Inflation driven by unsupported monetary issuance.
• The country's limited capacity to generate real foreign exchange.
• A decline in tourism (nearly a 20% drop in 2025).
• Institutional fragility and a lack of investor confidence.

Currency equivalencies as per January 18 exchange rates are as follows:

For the U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP):

• 1 USD = 490 CUP
• 5 USD = 2,450 CUP
• 10 USD = 4,900 CUP
• 20 USD = 9,800 CUP
• 50 USD = 24,500 CUP
• 100 USD = 49,000 CUP

For the Euro (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP):

• 1 EUR = 535 CUP
• 5 EUR = 2,675 CUP
• 10 EUR = 5,350 CUP
• 20 EUR = 10,700 CUP
• 50 EUR = 26,750 CUP
• 100 EUR = 53,500 CUP
• 200 EUR = 107,000 CUP