While the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil has yet to visibly impact Cuba, a nation already grappling with severe hardships, several economists warn that the island could soon face a critical situation if it fails to replace its South American ally's crude supply.
Cuban economist Miguel Alejandro Hayes, in a study referenced by EFE, projected that a 30% reduction in fuel availability might lead to a 27% drop in the gross domestic product, a 60% surge in food prices, and a 75% hike in transportation costs, alongside a 30% decrease in household consumption.
According to Hayes, such a scenario would represent "a true economic and humanitarian catastrophe, worse than the Special Period." Currently, official indicators do not show an immediate decline.
Power outages remain at levels similar to those at the end of 2025, and service stations continue to operate under the usual constraints, characterized by endless queues, intermittent closures, and a preference for dollar payments.
Data from the state-run Unión Eléctrica indicates that the maximum deficit rate has fluctuated between 52% and 60% since January 3, without a clear trend.
Recent peaks of 60% and 57% have been attributed to technical failures in thermoelectric plants rather than a cut in imported crude supply.
Nonetheless, experts agree that the effects of the embargo will eventually manifest.
As reported by EFE, Venezuela accounted for approximately 30% of the oil used on the island, around 27,000 barrels per day, a figure that cannot be replaced in the short term.
Both Russia and Mexico have continued to send reduced shipments, but these are insufficient to cover the shortfall.
The energy gap could severely impact the agricultural, industrial, and transportation sectors, which are already operating at the edge due to a lack of foreign exchange and deteriorating infrastructure.
"Cuba lacks strategic reserves and the financial capacity to sustain itself without Venezuelan oil. It's only a matter of weeks before the crisis worsens," Hayes warned.
Meanwhile, the regime attempts to maintain an appearance of stability.
The CubaPetróleo and Ticket apps have not reported significant changes in fuel distribution, although users in Havana claim that wait times for refueling exceed two months.
Economists agree that if Washington's embargo persists and Caracas does not resume shipments, Cuba's economy will suffer a widespread collapse, with increased hunger, inflation, and blackouts.
"The island was already on the brink, but without Venezuelan oil, it will plunge into the abyss," Hayes concluded.
Impact of Venezuelan Oil Shortage on Cuba
What percentage of oil did Venezuela supply to Cuba?
Venezuela supplied approximately 30% of the oil used in Cuba, around 27,000 barrels per day.
What could be the economic repercussions if Cuban oil supply remains inadequate?
An inadequate oil supply could lead to a 27% drop in GDP, a 60% rise in food prices, a 75% increase in transportation costs, and a 30% decline in household consumption.
How are power outages in Cuba affected by the oil shortage?
Power outages have remained at similar levels to those in late 2025, with no immediate signs of worsening due to the oil shortage.