On January 18, significant shifts occurred in Cuba's informal currency market. The value of the U.S. dollar and the euro has seen a continued upward trend, while the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) unexpectedly declined.
As of 7:00 a.m. local time, the dollar was averaging 488 CUP, marking a three-unit increase from the previous day, based on the latest figures from independent media outlet elTOQUE.
The U.S. dollar has now risen for four consecutive days. Previously, in January, it experienced streaks of increases lasting up to six days.
The euro has climbed to 525 CUP, reflecting a five-peso increase from its prior value.
In a surprising turn, the MLC dropped from 410 to 400 CUP, erasing gains made on Saturday and marking a sudden decrease of 10 units in a single day.
Exchange rates as of January 18, 2026, at 7:10 a.m. in Cuba are as follows: the U.S. dollar to CUP is 488, the euro to CUP is 525, and the MLC to CUP is 400, according to elTOQUE.
Currency Stability and Recent Upturns
While the informal market's current trend shows rising foreign currency values, December 2025 saw relative stability for both the dollar and the euro. This was despite the introduction of the "floating rate" (Segment III) on December 18, which governs the official exchange rate.
The Cuban Observatory of Currencies and Finance (OMFi) recently noted that this measure did not cause immediate effects or drastic changes. OMFi's models had forecasted an upward inclination for January:
For the dollar, a central projection of 465 CUP, with a range between 454 and 480 CUP; for the euro, a projection of 505 CUP, ranging from 479 to 515 CUP; and for the MLC, an estimation around 427 CUP, with a range between 398 and 440 CUP.
However, the current values—488 CUP for the dollar and 525 CUP for the euro—exceed these projections, underscoring a market under pressure from regional uncertainties and a lack of confidence in the Cuban peso.
Underlying Market Pressures
Several factors are driving the upward trend in currency values:
- The arrest of Nicolás Maduro, which has introduced instability in Venezuela, a key partner of Cuba.
- A limited supply of foreign currencies, which dwindled at the end of December and has not fully recovered.
- A weakening of confidence in Cuban institutions, particularly after the freezing of foreign currency in national banks.
- The use of MLC as a monetary policy tool, with the Central Bank purchasing MLC at rates similar to the dollar despite its low actual demand.
The MLC: An Inflated Asset?
In December, the MLC was the most appreciated currency in the informal market, increasing by 40.3%, which surpassed the previous month's growth of 39%.
Analysts interpret this appreciation as a result of deliberate intervention by the Central Bank, creating an "artificial premium" for the currency. Nonetheless, the MLC remains unattractive to users due to its limited usability and low acceptance as a means of payment.
The OMFi cautions that such manipulation may fuel inflation, with the Central Bank potentially issuing more pesos to purchase MLC than it can support with real operations.
Official Rates vs. elTOQUE's Figures: A Controversial Adoption
Analysts highlight the paradox that the official exchange rate introduced in late December bears a striking resemblance to the rates published by elTOQUE for months. This source faced significant government criticism, accused of misinformation or inciting panic.
The decision to formalize a nearly identical rate has sparked criticism and questions about the legitimacy of the state's economic policy.
Medium-Term Risks
The OMFi emphasizes that the current situation presents escalating risks:
- Inflation driven by unsupported monetary issuance.
- The country's limited ability to generate real foreign currency.
- A decline in tourism, with a nearly 20% drop in 2025.
- Institutional fragility and lack of investor confidence.
USD to CUP and EUR to CUP Equivalency
U.S. Dollar to Cuban Peso equivalence as of January 18:
- 1 USD = 488 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,440 CUP
- 10 USD = 4,880 CUP
- 20 USD = 9,760 CUP
- 50 USD = 24,400 CUP
- 100 USD = 48,800 CUP
Euro to Cuban Peso equivalence:
- 1 EUR = 525 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,625 CUP
- 10 EUR = 5,250 CUP
- 20 EUR = 10,500 CUP
- 50 EUR = 26,250 CUP
- 100 EUR = 52,500 CUP
Understanding Cuba's Currency Market Dynamics
What factors are influencing the rise of the dollar and euro in Cuba?
The increase in the dollar and euro is driven by regional instability, particularly in Venezuela, limited foreign currency supply, decreased confidence in Cuban institutions, and the Central Bank's monetary policy regarding MLC.
Why did the MLC value decline suddenly?
The decline in MLC can be attributed to its low demand and the Central Bank's policy of buying MLC at rates similar to the dollar, despite the currency's lack of real market use.
How does the current situation affect Cuba's economic policy?
The similarity between the official exchange rate and elTOQUE's published rates has raised questions about the credibility and effectiveness of the Cuban government's economic policy.