This Saturday, the U.S. dollar continues its upward trend in Cuba, reinforcing the strong streak the currency has maintained in the island's informal exchange market since early 2026.
As of 7:00 a.m. local time on January 17, the dollar is averaging a selling price of 485 CUP, marking a five-unit increase from the previous day, according to the latest rate published by the independent media outlet elTOQUE.
The U.S. dollar has now risen for three consecutive days, although it has previously achieved streaks of up to six straight days of increases in January.
Unexpectedly, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), which had remained stable for a week, jumped from 400 to 410 CUP, indicating a surprising ten-unit rise in just one day.
Meanwhile, the euro holds steady today, maintaining the 520 CUP mark it reached last Thursday.
Current Exchange Rates and Trends
The exchange rates as of 7:10 a.m. on January 17, 2026, in Cuba are as follows:
- USD to CUP rate according to elTOQUE: 485 CUP
- EUR to CUP rate according to elTOQUE: 520 CUP
- MLC to CUP rate according to elTOQUE: 410 CUP
Despite the introduction of the "floating rate" (Segment III) on December 18, which governs the official exchange rate, the current upward trend in the informal market diverges from the relative stability of the dollar and euro observed in December 2025.
The Cuban Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi) recently noted that this measure did not have immediate impacts or drastic changes, suggesting the informal market had already adjusted to official announcements.
January 2026 Projections
The OMFi's forecasts for January anticipated an upward bias:
- Dollar: Central projection of 465 CUP (range between 454 and 480 CUP)
- Euro: Projection of 505 CUP (range between 479 and 515 CUP)
- MLC: Estimated around 427 CUP (range between 398 and 440 CUP)
However, the current values—485 CUP for the dollar and 520 CUP for the euro—exceed these predictions, highlighting a market under pressure from regional uncertainties and declining confidence in the Cuban peso.
Market Pressure Factors
Several factors contribute to this upward trend:
- The capture of Nicolás Maduro, creating a new instability scenario in Venezuela, a key ally of Cuba.
- A limited supply of foreign currency, which decreased at the end of December and hasn't fully recovered.
- Weakened trust in Cuban institutions, especially after the freezing of foreign currency in national banks.
- Use of the MLC as a monetary policy tool, with the Central Bank purchasing MLC at rates similar to the dollar despite low actual demand.
The MLC Conundrum
In December, the MLC had the highest appreciation in the informal market, jumping 40.3%, surpassing the previous month's increase of 39%.
Analysts interpret this appreciation as a deliberate intervention by the Central Bank to create an "artificial premium" for this currency. Nonetheless, the MLC remains unattractive due to its limited usability and low acceptance as a payment method.
The OMFi warns that such manipulation might be fueling inflation, as the BCC could be issuing more pesos to purchase MLC than it can support with real operations.
Official Rates vs. elTOQUE: A "Plagiarized" Rate
An intriguing paradox highlighted by analysts is the striking similarity between the official rate implemented in late December and the one published by elTOQUE for months. The government, which previously accused the independent outlet of misinformation, now faces criticism for adopting an almost identical rate.
This decision has sparked questions and skepticism about the legitimacy of the state's economic policy.
Medium-Term Risks
The OMFi emphasizes that the current scenario poses growing risks:
- Inflation driven by unsupported monetary emission.
- Low capacity to generate real foreign currency.
- Deteriorating tourism, with a nearly 20% decline in 2025.
- Institutional fragility and lack of investor confidence.
All this unfolds amidst anticipated regional geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in Cuba-Venezuela trade dynamics, largely maintained by the "services for oil" scheme.
Conversion Rates for U.S. Dollar and Euro
U.S. Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP) conversion as of January 17:
- 1 USD = 485 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,425 CUP
- 10 USD = 4,850 CUP
- 20 USD = 9,700 CUP
- 50 USD = 24,250 CUP
- 100 USD = 48,500 CUP
Euro (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP) conversion:
- 1 EUR = 520 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,600 CUP
- 10 EUR = 5,200 CUP
- 20 EUR = 10,400 CUP
- 50 EUR = 26,000 CUP
- 100 EUR = 52,000 CUP
- 200 EUR = 104,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 260,000 CUP
Understanding Cuba's Informal Currency Market
Why is the U.S. dollar increasing in Cuba's informal market?
The increase is attributed to regional instability, a limited supply of foreign currency, and declining confidence in Cuban financial institutions.
How does the MLC compare to the U.S. dollar in terms of market demand?
The MLC is less attractive due to its limited use and acceptance, despite recent appreciation driven by Central Bank interventions.
What are the risks of the current currency trends in Cuba?
Risks include inflation from unsupported monetary emission, reduced capacity to generate real currency, tourism decline, and institutional fragility.