On the morning of Thursday, January 15, 2026, there has been a noticeable uptick in the black market exchange rates for both the dollar and the euro in Cuba, continuing an upward trend that began earlier this year.
By 7:00 a.m. (local time), the average selling price for the U.S. dollar reached 475 CUP, marking a five-unit increase from its previous rate. Meanwhile, the euro climbed for the third consecutive day to 515 CUP, also a five-peso rise from yesterday, according to the independent outlet elTOQUE.
Interestingly, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) has remained stable at 400 CUP since last Friday, holding steady for nearly a week.
The dollar and euro have been on the rise since the start of 2026, a period that aligns with the detention of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela on January 3, an event that has sparked political tension and economic instability throughout the region, with keen interest from Cuba.
Exchange Rates on January 15, 2026 - 7:21 a.m. in Cuba:
- USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 475 CUP.
- EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 515 CUP.
- MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 400 CUP.
January's Upward Trend vs. December's Stability
The current surge in foreign currency values contrasts with the relative stability seen in December 2025, despite the introduction of a new managed float exchange rate on December 18 (Segment III).
The Cuban Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi) reports that this new policy did not have immediate effects or cause significant disruptions, indicating that the black market may have already factored in the official announcements.
Forecasts for January 2026
Projections from the OMFi for January suggested an upward bias:
- Dollar: central forecast of 465 CUP (range between 454 and 480 CUP)
- Euro: forecast of 505 CUP (range between 479 and 515 CUP)
- MLC: estimated around 427 CUP (range between 398 and 440 CUP)
With current values at 475 CUP for the dollar and 515 CUP for the euro, both currencies are at the upper limit of forecasts, underscoring a market strained by regional uncertainty and diminishing trust in the Cuban peso.
Market Pressures and Key Influences
Several factors contribute to the rising trend:
- The capture of Nicolás Maduro, creating a fresh wave of instability in Venezuela, a crucial partner for Cuba.
- A limited supply of foreign currency, which dwindled at the end of December and hasn't fully recovered.
- Erosion of confidence in Cuban institutions, especially after the freezing of foreign currency in national banks.
- The use of MLC as a monetary policy tool, with the Central Bank purchasing MLC at rates similar to the dollar, despite low real demand.
Is the Freely Convertible Currency a Bubble?
During December, the MLC appreciated the most in the informal market, with a jump of 40.3%, even surpassing the previous month's increase (39%).
Analysts interpret this as a result of deliberate intervention by the Central Bank, creating an "artificial premium" for the currency. Nonetheless, the MLC remains unattractive to users due to its limited usability and low acceptance as a payment method.
The OMFi warns that such manipulation could fuel inflation, as the Central Bank might be issuing more pesos to purchase MLC than it can back with real transactions.
Official vs. elTOQUE: A "Plagiarized" Rate?
A notable paradox highlighted by analysts is that the official rate implemented at the end of December closely resembles the one published by elTOQUE for months, a source previously criticized by the government for allegedly spreading misinformation or causing panic.
The decision to formalize a nearly identical rate has sparked criticism and questions about the legitimacy of the state's economic policy.
Medium-Term Risks
The OMFi emphasizes that the current situation presents growing risks:
- Inflation driven by unsupported monetary issuance
- Low capacity to generate real foreign currency
- Decline in tourism (with a near 20% drop in 2025)
- Institutional fragility and lack of investor confidence
These issues arise in a regional context where geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in Cuba-Venezuela trade dynamics are anticipated, largely sustained by a "services for oil" scheme thus far.
USD to CUP Conversion Rates on January 15
- 1 USD = 475 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,375 CUP
- 10 USD = 4,750 CUP
- 20 USD = 9,500 CUP
- 50 USD = 23,750 CUP
- 100 USD = 47,500 CUP
EUR to CUP Conversion Rates
- 1 EUR = 515 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,575 CUP
- 10 EUR = 5,150 CUP
- 20 EUR = 10,300 CUP
- 50 EUR = 25,750 CUP
- 100 EUR = 51,500 CUP
- 200 EUR = 103,000 CUP
Frequently Asked Questions About Cuba's Currency Exchange
Why are the dollar and euro increasing in Cuba's black market?
The rise is due to factors such as regional instability following Nicolás Maduro's capture, limited foreign currency supply, and diminishing trust in Cuban institutions.
What is the current exchange rate for the USD to CUP?
As of January 15, 2026, the exchange rate for 1 USD is 475 CUP in Cuba's black market.
How does the MLC compare to the dollar and euro in terms of stability?
The MLC has remained stable at 400 CUP, while the dollar and euro have seen an upward trend, making them more volatile in the current market.