Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 94-year-old Raúl Castro, the seasoned commander who continues to wield substantial power in Cuba, has neither made any public appearances nor issued official statements. This silence is particularly noteworthy at a time when the survival of the Cuban regime appears increasingly precarious.
In the midst of significant political and geopolitical tension, as regional leaders respond fervently to the fall of Chavismo and its repercussions for Havana, Raúl has maintained an absolute silence.
He has refrained from making any declarations, delivering speeches, or issuing statements, and has not been seen at official events related to the current crisis.
His absence is especially striking given his behind-the-scenes role, where he continues to control key levers of power such as the economic-military conglomerate GAESA and exert influence over Miguel Díaz-Canel.
The only indirect reference to him from the Cuban Government was an official tweet from the Foreign Ministry last Friday, quoting a speech he gave at the third CELAC Summit: "We will not allow ourselves to be provoked, nor will we accept any attempt to advise or pressure us on our internal affairs."
However, this is neither a direct nor current communication from Raúl himself, but merely a reuse of his words from a prior context unrelated to the current events.
His public absence was conspicuous during an event organized by the regime to show support for Maduro immediately after his capture: the demonstration at the José Martí Anti-Imperialist Platform in Havana, staged to condemn what the Government labeled as an "imperialist military aggression by the United States against Venezuela."
The event saw the participation of Díaz-Canel and the top officials of the Communist Party, but Raúl was notably missing.
The last time Raúl Castro was seen in a public event was last December during the final session of the sixth ordinary period of the National Assembly of People's Power.
On that occasion, he was once again introduced as the "leader at the helm of the Cuban Revolution," attending the plenary session alongside Díaz-Canel and receiving applause from the deputies.
The scene reinforced the perception that, despite formally stepping down from his positions in 2021, he retains symbolic and political influence within the state apparatus.
Since then—and particularly after the capture of Maduro, a historic ally of Havana who supplied Cuba with crucial resources such as subsidized oil—there have been no visible signs of him in any public or political arena.
This silence coincides with a critical moment in which Díaz-Canel's Government faces a profound economic and social crisis, now exacerbated by the collapse of its main regional ally.
Raúl's absence has also spurred external speculation and discussions on social media, where many view his silence as an indication of the fragility of Cuban leadership and a possible evasion of taking a stance during a time of structural crisis.
The fact that the regime's "strongman" has not uttered a single word, appeared at public events, or even been symbolically showcased—as is often done when power feels threatened—reveals an unusual pattern.
In previous crises (Fidel's death, the July 11th protests, migration surges, constitutional changes), Raúl's image was employed as a guarantee of continuity, cohesion, and control. Today, it is not.
Amid warnings of historical consequences for the Cuban regime following the fall of Chavismo, his "disappearance" adds further uncertainty to the political future of the Island.
Understanding the Implications of Raúl Castro's Silence
Why is Raúl Castro's silence significant?
Raúl Castro's silence is significant because it occurs during a critical moment for the Cuban regime, with the capture of a key ally, Nicolás Maduro, and rising internal crises. His absence from public discourse raises questions about the stability and direction of Cuban leadership.
How does Raúl Castro still influence Cuba?
Despite formally retiring from leadership roles, Raúl Castro continues to exercise influence through his control over significant power structures, such as the economic-military conglomerate GAESA, and by advising Miguel Díaz-Canel.
What are the potential consequences of Raúl Castro's absence?
His absence could signal instability within the regime, potentially leading to increased uncertainty about Cuba's political future, especially as the country faces economic challenges and the loss of a supportive ally in Venezuela.