Power Outages Expected to Increase as Venezuela Crisis Strains Cuba's Electricity Generation

The year 2026 has commenced with a dire situation for Cuba's power generation sector. The nation's electrical grid faces one of its toughest challenges just as Venezuela, its major oil benefactor for over two decades, undergoes an unprecedented political and military crisis. This combination of internal generation shortfalls, a collapse of fuel reserves, and the blockade of Venezuelan oil makes an increase in power outages on the island almost inevitable.

Record Deficit Marks Start of the Year in Cuba

In early January, the Cuban Electric Union (UNE) projected power shortages during peak hours reaching nearly 1,800-1,830 MW, a figure that represents a significant portion of the country's maximum demand. Official statements acknowledge that these disruptions are no longer confined to nighttime but are now affecting numerous areas around the clock.

This deterioration is underpinned by two main issues: the chronic unavailability of outdated thermoelectric plants, many of which are offline due to breakdowns and lack of maintenance, and the increasing reliance on distributed generation (diesel and fuel oil engines) which is only operational if there's adequate fuel. When both systems fail simultaneously, as is currently happening in Cuba, the outcome is prolonged blackouts, limited circuit rotation capacity, and growing social unrest.

Venezuela: From Benefactor to Storm's Epicenter

While Cuba grapples with this critical period, Venezuela is undergoing a historic upheaval: a military strike by the United States, the capture of Nicolás Maduro, and a strengthened naval blockade on Venezuelan oil. This new landscape has placed much of the oil flow, once used by the Chavismo regime as a geopolitical tool, under the control of Washington and major oil companies, including preferential agreements with Havana.

For years, Venezuelan oil shipments, which once exceeded 90,000 barrels daily, dwindled to around 11,000-27,000 barrels per day headed to Cuba by 2025, according to shipping tracking firms. Yet, these volumes remained vital for powering plants and fueling transportation on the island. Their sudden loss or interruption immediately results in power outages, fuel queues, and economic paralysis.

Naval Blockade, Pursued Oil Tankers, and Cuba in Distress

The new conflict has increased pressure on any vessel associated with Venezuelan crude: interceptions, boardings, and seizures have become routine in the Caribbean and Atlantic. The United States views the so-called “ghost fleet” with suspicion—those tankers with flags of convenience, disabled transponders, and opaque practices that have for years transported sanctioned oil to markets like China, India, and indirectly, Cuba.

Within this context, any attempt to deliver Venezuelan oil to Cuban ports is fraught with risk; ships may be pursued for weeks and often end up seized and towed to US-controlled ports. Meanwhile, tankers that already departed Venezuela have chosen to reroute to the United States, where the new framework prioritizes sending oil to American refineries over traditional Chavismo political allies.

Depleted Reserves and Insufficient "Lifelines"

The direct consequence for Cuba is facing the start of 2026 with fuel inventories at historic lows. Independent analysts estimate reserves at approximately 360,000 barrels, equivalent to four days of consumption. This situation necessitates rationing diesel and gasoline, further reducing transportation, and prioritizing certain sectors, leaving the rest of the country vulnerable to more prolonged and frequent power cuts.

Mexico has emerged as Havana's primary "lifeline," sending tankers like the Ocean Mariner with shipments of around 80,000 barrels (about 14 million liters) that buy just a few additional days of respite. However, both Mexican and Cuban media acknowledge that these shipments do not represent a sustained increase in supply compared to previous years and fall short of replacing the regular flow once received from Venezuela.

An Electrical System on the Brink of Collapse

On the ground, this translates into an electrical system operating in survival mode, with a deficit exceeding 1,600-1,800 MW and a significant portion of thermal capacity offline due to fuel shortages or breakdowns. Aging thermoelectric plants, distributed generation unable to operate due to diesel shortages, and the intermittent nature of renewable sources leave the UNE without tools to prevent massive blackouts.

The state-owned company concedes that daily disruptions will remain exceptionally high, while independent media emphasize that the system begins 2026 "in worse conditions" than the previous year, both due to technical unavailability and fuel shortages. The economy, already in deep recession, suffers direct impacts: idle industries, losses in refrigerated foods, a decline in basic services, and an exhausted population after years of outages.

All indicators point in the same direction: yes, power outages will increase. On one hand, the external shock caused by the Venezuelan crisis reduces or nearly cuts off a crucial oil source for Cuba during a time of extreme internal fragility. On the other hand, there is no equivalent substitute on the horizon: neither Mexico nor Russia is in a position to assume the role once held by PDVSA, and Havana lacks the foreign currency to purchase large volumes on the open market.

In this new geopolitical environment, Cuba's electricity generation is stretched to its limits, caught in a double crisis: one emanating from Caracas, with Chavismo in a monitored transition and oil increasingly controlled by Washington, and the other brewing within the island, with decades of technological backwardness, poor management, and total reliance on imported fuel. Until this equation changes structurally, long, frequent, and likely increasing blackouts will be the "norm" in Cuba.