Transitioning Cuba: AI Estimates $42-$61 Billion Needed Over a Decade

If the United States were to implement a strategy in Cuba similar to the one proposed for Venezuela—comprising phases of stabilization, recovery, and eventually a political transition—the internal dynamics and power structures within the island could undergo a significant transformation. This transformation would be deeply rooted in the current regime's structure.

A transition in Cuba would be carefully managed under U.S. leadership. Initiating this change cannot be achieved through elections or superficial reforms. The first priority must be to avert a humanitarian collapse and address the aftermath left by the regime.

Phase One: Stabilizing Cuba's Foundations

This initial phase, expected to last up to 12 months, aims to prevent the nation from descending into chaos and ensure the survival of its people. Ensuring a reliable electricity supply would be paramount, as it is crucial for providing water, food, hospital services, communication, and governance.

Immediate actions for electricity:

• Direct fuel imports under U.S. supervision
• Urgent repairs of existing power plants, regardless of their age
• Substituting expensive diesel with fuel/crude oil where feasible
• Military-logistical oversight to prevent resource diversion, excluding entities like GAESA

Estimated cost for 24/7 basic electricity: $2.5–3 billion USD annually

Immediate actions for food and water:

• Massive importation of essential food items
• Minimal reactivation of aqueducts and pumping stations
• Community kitchens and direct rations, akin to post-war models

Cost: $1.5–2 billion USD annually

Healthcare and medicine actions:

• Provision of essential medicines
• Secured energy supply for hospitals
• Direct payment to medical personnel, bypassing the corrupt state system

Cost: $800 million–1.2 billion USD annually

Overall, the first phase would require an investment of $6–8 billion USD. This is not an investment in growth but a humanitarian and social control measure to prevent the country's breakdown.

Phase Two: Laying the Groundwork for Recovery

This recovery phase could stretch over four years (from the second to the fourth year of transition) with the objective of making Cuba self-sustaining.

Steps for a modern electrical system:

• Gradual closure of non-viable plants
• Integration of gas-fuel combined cycles
• Expansion of solar and wind energy with thermal backups
• Development of a new electrical grid (current losses exceed 30%)

Cost: $8–12 billion USD

Agriculture and food initiatives:

• Returning land to private ownership
• Private credit availability
• Elimination of state monopoly over inputs
• Abolishment of centralized food collection

Cost: $3–4 billion USD

Basic infrastructure improvements:

• Ports
• Roads
• Telecommunications
• Water and sanitation

Cost: $5–7 billion USD

In total, Phase Two would necessitate $16–23 billion USD.

Phase Three: Political Transition to Democracy

Spanning from the fourth to the tenth year, this phase aims to establish a functional, genuine democracy. Elections would take place once basic needs like food, electricity, and real wages are secured.

Key actions include:

• Transitional justice without witch hunts
• Integration into the international financial system
• Significant private investment in sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and energy

Expected investment: $20–30 billion USD, predominantly private.

In summary, over a decade, approximately $42–61 billion USD would be needed: $6–8 billion for stabilization, $16–23 billion for recovery, and $20–30 billion for transition.

Political Implications: The Uncomfortable Truth

In a hypothetical scenario where a plan akin to Venezuela's is applied, the U.S. aim would not be to salvage the Cuban regime but to avert a deeper collapse. Such a strategy would necessitate the dismantling of entities like GAESA and would strip figures like Raúl Castro and the current leadership of any control over the process.

External control would be crucial to mitigate immediate risks such as resource plundering, corruption, chaos akin to Haiti, and mass migration to Florida. The focus would be on containment and order, not preserving the status quo.

Direct Conclusion: Yes, a U.S.-controlled transition is feasible under these conditions. Although costly, it would be far less expensive than descending into chaos. Cuba cannot independently recover from the devastation left by the regime. The first year would not focus on ideology or politics in the traditional sense but on humanitarian relief and order, aimed at stabilizing basic services, ensuring supply, and preventing a power vacuum with regional repercussions.